Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Czech markets  |  August 06, 2012 14:07:08

CEZ - Forecast results for 2Q12, Albania, the main risk


CEZ will publish its results for 2Q12 on Friday 10 August, before the market opens.

We expect 2Q12 sales increase by around 5 percent, while above them could help more electricity in the domestic market and in a wind park in Romania, and also slightly more favorable guaranteed price for electricity in 2012 (52.5 against 52 EUR / MWh in 2011).We believe that operating profits would be compared to 2Q11 roughly flat, though, higher-margin coal power plants could partly offset the expected losses in Albania. Net profit would be according to our estimates by more than 10 percent higher than the same period last year, thanks to the gift tax dropped from emission allowances and the second quarter of this year, this could slightly improve year on year comparison of the first.

CEZ - 2Q12 forecast
CZK million 2Q11A Patria 2Q12E   2Q12E Kons. * Cons. span y / y Patria y / y Kons.
Revenues 46 749 49 162 49 800 48.2 to 52.3   5.2% 6.5%
EBITDA 17 293 17 405 18 200 17.0 to 20.8 0.6% 5.2%
EBIT 11 140 10 927 11 300 10.5 to 14.0 -1.9% 1.4%
Net profit 6725 7586 7700 6.2 to 10.7 12.8% 14.5%

CEZ - 6M12 prognosis
CZK million 6M11A Patria 6M12E   6M12E Kons. * Cons. span y / y Patria y / y Kons.
Revenues 103 554 109 955 110 600 109.0 to 113.1 6.2% 6.8%
EBITDA 43 891 43 719 44 500 43.3 to 47.1 -0.4% 1.4%
EBIT 31 668 30 759 31 100 30.3 to 33.8 -2.9% -1.8%
Net profit 23 929 22 046 22 500 21.0 to 25.7 -7.9% -6.0%

* THROUGH Kons. (22)
Conference Call: 10 August at 16:00 (GMT) +44 (0) 1452 569 335, ID: 17646863

The greatest risk for not only the results for 2Q12, but also to the goals of this year (FY12 EBITDA of CZK 87.9 billion and net profit of CZK 41.0 billion), according to us is still the situation in Albania. The objectives of the company (although judged to be too cautious with space for overcoming them) is likely to count the losses that may arise in the Albanian distribution company after the change of conditions occur this year the local regulator. CEZ is trying to solve the situation, of course, but so far the company reported any satisfactory conclusions. The amount of losses in 2Q12 are estimated at a minimum of CZK 1 billion, after the loss of CZK 1.7 billion in the first quarter of this year.

CEZ already secured all of its planned production of electricity this year with an average price of 52.5 euros / MWh and assume that for 2013 would have provided about 60 percent of planned production cost about 53 EUR / MWh. The current prices for future one-year contract under 50 euros, so we think pose a risk to the gradual decrease in average realized prices of production, especially when we see little chance for growth of energy prices in the near future.


Thomas Sykora, Patria Finance


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