Research (Proinvestory.cz)
Markets  |  August 07, 2012 15:46:26

Problems in Japan


Japan is approaching the problems.

As a leading indicator we can take a significant drop in orders in engineering. Orders decrease by almost 15% can not be an isolated phenomenon. Expected decrease was only about one fifth.This decline is worse than after last year's tsunami and nuclear power plant explosion in Fukushima and will hardly unique, especially when taking into account the evolution of Japan's current account, where its surplus decreased by almost two thirds (in surplus due solely to hold the interest of foreign investors Japanese bonds) and the expected decrease was significantly smaller.

Whether the Bank of Japan is doing what he does, the effect is not presenting, for the BoJ is the inventor of quantitative easing, QE is on the agenda there almost continuously since 1990.In addition, the BoJ has been virtually empty ammunition storage, which can be used - the trade surplus is gone and with it disappeared the funds available for intervention in international markets.

In my view this development signals the weakness of the global economy, including the Chinese. I do not believe the Fed and the ECB will do similar things as the BoJ (including QE 3, QE4 to QE XX), the result will be much better.

Key for Japan will be, at what rates will be able to refinance $ 2.6 trillion, which are due within six months. This tells much. If Japan has released the Spanish way, any good we would not expect. If the Spanish way granted the United States, the Japanese yen soared up and even in this case, Japan would not expect anything good.

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Last week I was on China , now Japan, next week you can enjoy the commentary focused on the economy of the United States.

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