World markets  |  August 09, 2012 14:53:47

July and August for positive markets. How long growth will last? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 6th week 8th 2012


The stock markets in both Europe and the U.S. is seeing a slow-growing channel, which began to take shape after reaching a local minimum at the beginning of June. You could say that the so-called "summer rally" to appear before it.

Gradual growth has not been from the very beginning of June with no problems. Any increase in index was substantially sold out very quickly, often from more than one half during the second half of July then some indexes even showed a lateral trend.

The broader American S & P500 grew from the beginning of June 1270 points to the current 1400 points, which means growth of up to 10%. Better yet succeeded indices in Europe, German and French CAC40 DAX30 even grew by more than 17%.

The final stage of growth took place against the background of the ECB's Draghi Governor promises. He suggested two weeks ago in his speech that the ECB will do everything in its capabilities within its mandate. He added a powerful sentence: "And believe me, that would be enough." Investors and fixed his eyes on the ECB's meeting in early August. There are, however, as already happened many times in the past, Draghi disappointed by his actions (or, through inaction). In his speeches, decisive action shifted back in time to be "several weeks".

The negative market reactions, however, was surprisingly short and the following day, Friday, the markets have issued sharply higher.

Investors thus have before us the rest of August, which most likely will not bring any major negative news. Already at the beginning of September, however, can expect an interesting event. First, should the German Constitutional Court ruling on the "constitutionality" rescue fund ESM.On this verdict probably very impatiently waiting for European politicians. It will further develop the situation in Greece, which so-called "Troika" to suspend payment of further assistance. Indebted country must look for the money in the market or from other creditors. Further decisions on the new aid would fall in October.

They therefore bear markets continue to grow in such an unstable environment?

Miroslav Hlavoň, Capital Grant

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, a week from 6 8th The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
Third 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
899.20
906.80
905
^ 0.85
880 to 925
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 096,17
13 042,20
13 100
ˇ -0.41
12 800 - 13 200
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 967,90
2 990,00
3020
^ 0.75
2900 - 3050
3
2
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 787,30
5 753,20
5800
ˇ -0.59
5525 - 5880
3
2
DAX (Germany)
6 865,66
6 832,60
6900
ˇ -0.48
6550 - 6950
3
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 555,11
8 701,60
8710
^ 1.71
8 400 - 8 900
4
A


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
Third 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
899.20
935.80
936
^ 4.07
923 to 950
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 096,17
13 467,60
13 438
^ 2.84
13 200 - 13 900
5
0
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 967,90
3 100,20
3100
^ 4.46
3071 - 3120
5
0
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 787,30
5 992,80
5950
^ 3.55
5 900 - 6 200
5
0
DAX (Germany)
6 865,66
7 058,40
7050
^ 2.81
7 000 - 7100
5
0
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 555,11
9 017,40
9000
^ 5.40
8850 - 9157
5
0


Comparison:

Look also to the estimates made ??last and before last week.
All estimates can be seen in the section Expert BIG .

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Menčík Thomas, George SIMAR - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Červenec a srpen pro trhy pozitivní. Jak dlouho růst vydrží? / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 6. 8. 2012

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