Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  August 15, 2012 08:29:00

Tuesday's euro gains were only temporary

Tuesday was a first for the euro favorable rate if EUR / USD moved from 1.2340 up to 1.2390. Around midday hours, but the trend turned around this morning, the course is even slightly below yesterday morning levels.

Euro helped better than expected GDP from Germany and France. However, despite this positive surprise of the euro area as a whole declined in line with forecasts by 0.2% q / q. Yesterday's data showed that the image remains in the EMU yet still the same - German expansion, which pushes exports and consumption, the French stagnation and deep recession in Southern Europe (Italy -0.7% q / q, -0.4% Spain, Portugal - 1.2% -0.8% Greece probably q / q). In the euro area have been published in June industrial production, which declined by 0.6% m / m, which erased most of the growth from the previous month (0.9%).German ZEW index did end of expectations, but the decrease was recorded in both of its components (component expectations and evaluative component of the current situation).

In the U.S., we then waited to see U.S. retail sales for July, which pleasantly surprised with their growth by 0.8% m / m A little more even increased sales net of volatile fuel sales and rental. However, as our colleagues from SG cautioned that revisions in recent months to fully offset the positive surprises.

Today we will see interesting data mainly from the USA. Industrial index from around New York would be slightly worse, our colleagues in the SG compared with the market expecting a larger drop.Industrial production should be increased in July by 0.5% m / m, thus capacity utilization increased from 78.9% to 79.2%. There will also be published on consumer inflation figures for July and the influx of long-term means for June.

Author: Jiri Skop

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