World markets  |  August 16, 2012 18:10:28

This year's August market is still quiet / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 13th week 8th 2012


While last August was one of the markets of the wildest months of last year, this is almost the perfect antithesis. Equity indices are holding in a tight band, and such volatility index (VIX) dropped in August to below 14b. Where you last moved in 2007.

The following peaceful trading, helped by several factors. Besides the absence of important fundamentals and mildew season, but it's mostly rhetoric leading central bankers who are still prepared to meet the traders back in the event that the situation on the markets began to dramatize in any way. This is especially true of the Fed and the ECB bosses, who have repeatedly indicated that they have many tools, which may stabilize the markets almost immediately.

Similar comments made life especially bears, who recently risked rather remain in the short position of more than a few days. The reason is the tendency of the market to react to any sale of almost immediate correction, which is due to the expected relaxation of monetary policy. Much easier to position but do not even bulls, for which it is very difficult to push up shares without explicit guarantee of the next round of quantitative easing. In this situation it is no wonder that many investors during the holidays stand apart and traded volumes reaching levels that we saw last year sometime during the last Christmas.

Jaroslav Brychta, X-Trade Brokers

Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored by indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) over one month and a half years, a week from 6 8th The 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of 1 month

Pointer
Hodn.
10th 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
926.40
911.60
915
ˇ -1.60
893 to 925
0
5
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 207,95
12 987,20
13 000
ˇ -1.67
12 769 - 13 200
0
5
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 020,86
2 978,40
2990
ˇ -1.41
2933 - 3030
A
4
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 847,10
5 756,80
5800
ˇ -1.54
5633 - 5850
2
3
DAX (Germany)
6 944,56
6 822,40
6850
ˇ -1.76
6683 - 6950
A
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 891,44
8 751,20
8819
ˇ -1.58
8567 - 8850
0
5


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
10th 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
926.40
932.20
930
^ 0.63
915 to 950
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 207,95
13 383,80
13 300
^ 1.33
13 032 - 13 820
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 020,86
3 081,80
3100
^2.02
2996 - 3133
4
A
FTSE 100 (VB)
5 847,10
5 956,80
5950
^ 1.88
5767 - 6150
4
A
DAX (Germany)
6 944,56
7 018,20
7040
^ 1.06
6868 - 7133
4
A
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 891,44
9 030,20
9001
^ 1.56
8900 - 9200
5
0

Reviews carried out in this week:

  • Menčík Thomas, George SIMAR - Cyrrus
  • Libor Bucek, John Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlin
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Charles handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" the value of the observed indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimation was based. Using this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is surrounded by the size of a structured set of assumptions and "Interval Estimates" indicates the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index in the period considered, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are non-binding form of views with regard to the outlook for the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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Letošní srpen na trzích je zatím klidný / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 13. 8. 2012

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