Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  August 27, 2012 10:06:45

Euro soap opera continues

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is the last episode of "soap opera" about the crisis in the eurozone rather under pressure. On Friday, met with Greek Prime Minister Samaras and assured the world that Germany wants Greece remains in the eurozone. We do not know if it reacted pair EUR / USD, when around 17:20 on Friday, has created an unexpected price spike.

Merkel has yet little room for maneuver in order to assure and shun the voices we want Greece to remain in the eurozone. However, its room for maneuver considerably smaller (from our perspective) as a member of the realists Bavarian CSU Alexander Dobrindt who told German newspaper Bild that he expects that Greece will leave the euro area in 2013.

On the realists is also the Bundesbank chief Weidmann, Merkel's former economic adviser to the German magazine Der Spiegel said that the buying of bonds by the ECB would violate rules prohibiting direct financing of governments by the ECB. He added: "We should not underestimate the risk that the central bank financing can bring a drug addiction."

As for Friday's developments on the monitored pair EUR / USD, so that according to our expectations weakened. Published macro data in the U.S. had a couple of minimal impact. Interesting price spike was approximately 10 minutes before the end of the European session. We do not know whether it was a reaction to the Chancellor Merkel after meeting with Samaras, or to cover short positions in some larger big player in the market. A third possibility is that a big player like the weekend to sell on higher prices and thus took advantage of low liquidity trading Friday afternoon and pushed the price of the above to be able to sell at higher prices. Most of the price but was eventually Spike proobchodována.

Today sees the publication of key macro data from Germany at 10:00. It can bring significant movement in both directions. Still apply our medium-term view that the price will test the level around 1.2400. Short term, the market is already starting to move sideways with right now with greater tendency to downtrend.

Currently the pair EUR / USD traded at 1.2495 price, ie around important support. We can not predict what the market will do the published macro data. When the market is evaluated negatively, chances are good that this week will see testing 1.2400. In case of positive reaction may continue uptrend on the daily time frame and test 1.2600 levels.

Below the current market price of the perceived major supports of around 1.2472 and about 1.2434 and 1.2390. Above the current market price we see significant resistance around 1.2565 and about 1.2600 and 1.2640.

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