Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  August 30, 2012 09:19:39

Morning comment 30.08 - Draghi counters, reducing rates in CEE

Key Events

·         EU: President of the European Central Bank (ECB) M. Draghi told the German newspaper Die Zeit that if markets behave irrationally, it must also be the ECB non-standard measures. Apparently alluding to the high yields of Italian and Spanish government bonds. This statement can be taken as a defense of forthcoming ECB steps from criticism of German central bankers.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Central European currencies yesterday is not successful and dramatically weakened. The exception was a crown whose loss can be described as marginal. The reasons that led to such a significant depreciation of Central European currencies can only speculate. Certainly played an important role in decision of the Hungarian central bank meeting on Tuesday lowered its key interest rate by 0.25%. At least, now could be the Polish central bank (NBP), which also holds rates at high levels - the main rate at 4.75%. The gradual easing of monetary policy (lowering rates) would also be the end of this year to continue.These Central European currencies would largely lose their attractiveness high interest yield, which would be automatically reflected pressure on their further weakening. In the case of the Czech currency interest rate differential due to very low rates plays almost no role.

·         The crown on the currency pair euro weakened early on the day and headed to the surface 24.80 CZK / EUR. While the other currencies in the region has dramatically lost, crown until the end of the afternoon was just above the level of the above and in the very end of the day and just below. Against the U.S. dollar also weakened in the morning. During the day trading has stabilized below 19.80 CZK / USD. Significant gains, the Czech currency attributed to its Central European "colleagues". Against the zloty has been breaking boundaries 6 CZK / PLN.

·Region was the weakest currency last Polish zloty, the losses can also be attributed to technical factors (activation commands stop - loss) above the 4.12 PLN / EUR. Towards a common European currency continuously losing and at the end of the trading took place at the level of 4.18 PLN / EUR. The Hungarian forint headed to the surface 284 HUF / EUR.

·         The main currency pair trading took place without any significant changes in the band from 1.257 to 1.252 USD / EUR, the euro supervision highs from last week. Similar character should have during the day. Pronounced movements in this currency pair is expected on Friday and next week when the European Central Bank meets. Even in the rest of this week, however, can not exclude further euro gains and levels of testing at least $ 1.26 / EUR.

Today's expected dates and events

·         Germany: Unemployment Rate (August).

·         PL: Preliminary estimate of GDP for the 2nd quarter.

Miroslav Novak

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