iPoint (iPoint.cz)
Czech markets  |  August 30, 2012 09:31:45

Share views 8.30: Expectations surprising unexpected events (+ Pegasus, AAA)



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Errors, confusion, hesitation and indecision is now on Wall Street on a daily basis. The development of stock markets is so incredibly boring to is essentially a strongly depressing. Starting today, but everything should be changed, not only in the shortest term. In recent weeks, the media distanced itself from what is happening in Europe, where for a long time, will again be busy. The biggest changes would be brought about September, when it will approve the ESM in Germany and then perform the ECB to take action to rein in yields on the bond markets. Whatever measures are any, public finances in the peripheral economies will probably for a long time drowning in problems. The biggest burden will no longer be a high debt service costs, but to change it in turn will lower income taxes collected because of the economy on the periphery move in a recession that is still to everything only just beginning.

Slump in GDP in Spain is accelerating in the second quarter dropped by 1.0% from the previous -0.4%. Such performance in environments with up to a quarter of unemployed economically active population can be described as extremely great, because as Greece has unemployment slightly lower, but its GDP for the past eight quarters falls on average about 6% rate. Although Spain helps higher trade surplus due to slowing euro, unlike Greece, which has never been competitive, is not and probably will not, but the situation looks worse quarter to quarter, and in virtually all segments of the economy.

Explanation relatively great power the Spanish economy but there may be much simpler origins.A couple of days ago that there were reports that the Spanish government has overstated its GDP figures for the last two years, and in fact published figures slightly worse. This scenario reminds suspiciously February 2010 in Greece. Then it was a huge scandal, but now no one is above it pauses. One tenth here, a second there ... who cares? Often we hear that the fact that stock markets go up or down significantly, we need some surprising unexpected events. Will we see it? I expect so. And honestly, I would not be surprised to ...

More about the session in the U.S. and the results of AAA and Pegasus read the iPoint

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Akciový výhled 30.8.: Očekávání překvapivé neočekávané události (+Pegas, AAA)

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