Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  August 31, 2012 17:05:00

Czech crown at the end of the week unchanged

Crown at the beginning of Friday's trading against the euro fared when strengthened to below 24.80 CZK / EUR. Then, however, his repudiate any gains and, after 16 hour traded at the same value as on Thursday, which is about 24.88 CZK / EUR. The forint against the euro, earnings attributed roughly one third percent zloty was stronger by about two tenths percent.

End of the week was poor macroeconomic indicators. Czech money supply as measured by M2 in July rose by 6.3% y / y. Hungarian producer prices in July fell by 0.4% m / m, annual growth slowed from 6.9% in June to 6.2% (market expected 6.7% y / y).

Next week should be the crown causing conflicting factors. Other indicators will be published from the domestic economy, which should confirm the deteriorating condition (we will see, among other things, the structure of GDP for Q2 12) with the pressure to weaken the crown. On the other hand, according to our colleagues at the ECB SG at its Thursday meeting to reduce its key rate by 25 bps. Favorable interest rate differential should support the crown. The question remains as to how the ECB expresses the option to purchase bonds from countries affected by the debt crisis - either repurchase program may present as early as next week, or wait for the decision of the German Constitutional Court (Sept. 12) on the compliance of the European rescue fund ESM with the German constitution (Mario Draghi conditional redemption of the ECB currently functioning ESM).

On Monday, we will see economic data from regional indicators of PMI in the industry. Czech PMI should fall in August to 48.0 points from July's 49.5 points. Published the dynamics of the average wage in the Czech economy for Q2 12th Real average wage according to our estimates in Q2 12 decreased by 1.1% y / y; increased nominally by 2.3% y / y.

Czech swap curve at the short end today rose by 3 bp and at the long end by 5 bp.

Author: Marek Dřímal

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