Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 03, 2012 09:16:59

Summary 8.31 - Bernanke QE3 not notified, but maybe it will bring the September FOMC meeting on rates

Key Events

·         USA: B. Bernanke's speech at a conference in Jackson Hole can be considered as a key event not only Friday, but the whole of last week. Expectations that the central banker notified to the third round of quantitative easing (QE), like in 2010, but did not meet. Bernanke merely repeated that, if necessary, the Fed is willing to loosen monetary policy further. On the other hand, however, could not help but notice his very pessimistic comments on the current state of the labor market in the USA. Owing to the fact the publication of QE III or other forms of easing monetary conditions at the September meeting quite likely enough.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         At the end of the week proved central European currencies lower part of the previous erase losses. This is particularly the Polish zloty, which was the strongest currency of the region. Hungarian forint gains were marginal.Koruna against the euro from above the day de facto stagnated.

·         Trading took place against the euro on Friday, with no clear trend, especially in the range from 24.80 to 24.90 CZK / EUR.  The currency pair with the U.S. dollar crown during the afternoon hours on Tuesday tested a maximum underwater 19.70 CZK / USD. At the end of this returned above this level. Crown development, as well as developments in the financial markets in general, was influenced conference in Jackson Hole.

·         From a technical point of view remains the crown against two major currencies continue to trend appreciation in the medium. The currency pair with the euro, however, are signs of this trend abating. This week can not be ruled out either one of these two options. (1) Dealing with a crown will continue below the "25". (2) Crown weaken significantly above the level of "25", it will activate the stop-loss instructions and subsequent sudden depreciation of the koruna at least to the level of 25.20 CZK / EUR. So something similar to what happened last week on a pair EURPLN.

·         Zloty was able to break away from the level of 4.20 PLN / EUR and at the end of the day no trading was below the level of 4.17 PLN / EUR.

·The common European currency against the dollar began to strengthen during the morning and early afternoon highs only surpassed the previous week, but also the level of 1.26 USD / EUR. During his speech, Bernanke B. profits even slightly expanded, but the end of the day already closed again below the 1.26. Due to čtvrtečnímu the European Central Bank may be in the first half of the trading week, expect a "calm before the storm", ie, with no clear trend with lower volumes.

Today's expected dates and events

·         CR: Statistics average wage index of purchasing managers from industry.

·         Eurozone: Purchasing Managers' Index.

·          USA: National Day - Labor Day (Labor Day).

Miroslav Novak

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Souhrn 31.8. - Bernanke QE3 neoznámil, ale možná ho přinese zářijové jednání FOMC o sazbách

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