Investor's window  |  September 04, 2012 18:43:14

Industrial (non) activity in the world warning to investors


While investors focus on solving the European debt crisis, was released in August last days of date of activity in the industry (PMI indices respectively. ISM) in all three for the global economy key regions: in the U.S., eurozone and China. The first of the numbers, it European, probably no longer on the market is not too shocking. The fact that we remain well below the boom separates contraction (ie, 50 points), valid for several months. Encouragingly least is that it does not deteriorate the PMI only stagnates at a low level. Bad situation in Europe, but still has real implications for other economies, including China and the U.S..

Chinese data clearly show that the weakening of the economy can not be taken lightly. PMI industry has been under padesátibodovou limit, only the second time since February 2009. The first case occurred in November last year, however, was just a one episode.But this time, everything looks different. At least as can be judged from the partial data that was to be published in China PMI: for example, new orders index is now the lowest for the entire three and a half years post-crisis recovery. The detailed figures clearly show how much is missing European demand in this respect, will not soon improve. Yes, as it is customary in recent years, every bad macro is accompanied by an increase in investors' expectations that the monetary and fiscal authorities intervene.

But it is unrealistic to expect now in China similarly drastic action, what we saw at the beginning of 2009? At that time, the situation was clear: the busts of economic indicators were extremely deep and have a relatively quick impact on the labor market. Right now, however, that so far in China shows no visible problems such as to persuade radical action to the Chinese government and the central bank.Moreover, stimuli from three years ago led to increased problems on the real estate market and the bogey of inflation and the bursting real-estate bubbles to the Chinese authorities largely tied hands. In addition, weak demand for loans means that China has used tools of monetary policy, pointing to the credit expansion would probably now not sufficiently effective.

And thirdly, USA: There is industrial ISM index remained below the limit padesátibodovou the third month, while the sub-indices of new orders and employment for August reached the lowest levels since 2009. We are now in a situation where all three of these economies under 50 pts threshold. Such a situation was last here in February 2009, during the worst phase of the financial and economic crisis.Several macroeconomic figures, released during the summer, gave hope that perhaps will repeat last year's scenario when after weaker summer again followed the global economic recovery. Fresh data from industry do not support this optimistic view. And what must unnerve investors most is already quite considerably depleted arsenal of weapons to central banks - particularly the developed economies - not yet available. Already, however, can not be denied that the global economic situation is most serious for the whole period since the financial crisis. Support actions ECB, the Fed and the Chinese central bank is therefore a prerequisite to avert a global recession. Whether the condition is sufficient, it is with a big question mark.

Marek Hatlapatka (1978)

Vystudoval ekonomickou fakultu VŠB-TU Ostrava, absolvoval 3-měsíční stáž v Londýně a intenzivní kurz fundamentální analýzy pod vedením bývalého hlavního analytika Erste bank Galea Kirkinga. Ve společnosti CYRRUS, a.s. je zaměstnán od roku 2006, kdy nastoupil na místo analytika akciových trhů se zaměřením na zahraniční trhy, farmaceutický a bankovní sektor. Následně se specializoval na odvětví bankovnictví, elektrárenství a těžby uhlí a v těchto sektorech nyní patří k nejvyhledávanějším odborníkům v České republice. V roce 2008 se stal vedoucím analytického oddělení společnosti CYRRUS, a.s. a v této pozici působí i v současné době. Dlouhodobě patří k nejcitovanějším českým ekonomům, v roce 2010 se stal čtvrtým nejcitovanějším ekonomem v českých médiích.

Společnost CYRRUS, a.s., je licencovaným obchodníkem s cennými papíry. Společnost byla založena v roce 1995 a v současné době je největší mimopražskou makléřskou společností. Je členem Burzy cenných papírů Praha a Burzy cenných papírů ve Varšavě. Společnost CYRRUS, a.s., poskytuje komplexní služby na kapitálových trzích soukromé i firemní klientele, zaměřuje se na burzovní obchody v systému SPAD pražské burzy a obchodování na zahraničních trzích v Polsku, Maďarsku, Turecku, Německu a USA. Společnost patří mezi nejvýznamnější české obchodníky s investičními certifikáty.

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