Forex Zone (Forex Zone)
Czech markets  |  September 06, 2012 09:57:51

Day full of heavy ammunition


Today's calendar is published macro messages and therefore today acquired the pair EUR / USD, we expect a really wild day. It begins already in the morning, when there will be auction of Spanish bonds. Speaking of Spain, we noticed a report that according to a recent survey of clients of Goldman Sachs, 88% of investors expect that Spain officially requests for assistance from the EFSF / ESM. 70% of them had expected that by the end of October. 50% of respondents expect that Italy will follow before the end of the 1st quarter of 2013.

Today at 11:00 will be announced data on euro area GDP in the second quarter of this year and then we board heavyweight. At 13:30 British central bank announced interest rates. At 13:45 at the rates notified to the ECB. At 14:15 data from the labor market in the U.S. and at 14:30 the next chunk of data from the U.S. labor market, and also the beginning of the press conference Draghi. Another important macro data from the U.S. will be announced at 16:00.

For intraday traders today will be very risky. Most due Draghimu. We do not know what to say and how to react to the market.Perhaps the reaction is not so dramatic and markets will mainly wait for next week when the Fed meets. Anyway, short-term volatility is now virtually certain.

As regards developments in the monitored pair EUR / USD, so that during yesterday morning he came to the Reviews Support around 1.2510, for which we have pointed out , and which formed near the low of the day. Market after testing in areas around 1.2550, for which we also pointed. After market news arrived that Draghi will buy bonds and the price sharply flew nearly 50 pips. For the rest of the price oscillated around the level 1.2600, which is the upper edge of the trading range on the daily chart.

Yesterday growth induced response to report Draghi restored both short-term and medium-term uptrend. A little while ago there was a test yesterday and Tuesday's low, which we expected. Now we are on the edge. Be the interim market will keep today's high, then we expect that the price will be tested in the area around 1.2570 and 1.2555. If the current high hold, so it is in our view an open way to 1.2700 and 1.2715, where we see the first major resistance.

We'll see how the market reacts to the macro. If the reaction optimistic, so the probability that the market exceeds the level 1.2720, we see as little likely (if Draghi will not save the world in the form of unlimited bond buying troubled countries). Still recall the MTO around 1.2400, which may currently seem far away, but when we grow into strong resistance carefully build short position with which we match there. Short-better strategy remains open long trades when the reflections from significant support. For today, however, will be best not to have any open position and wait for the market to absorb the load of today's macro data.

Currently the pair EUR / USD traded at 1.2620 price. Above this value we see significant resistance around 1.2690 and 1.2715 and 1.2750. Below the current market price of the perceived major supports of around 1.2550 and about 1.2500 and 1.2450.

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