Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 06, 2012 13:34:57

Survey: Euro will survive 2012, Spain asks for salvation, not Italy

According to the outputs from Bloomberg Global Poll survey, 85% of the total of 847 respondents from investors and analysts expect Spain by the end of this year asks for emergency assistance. 59% of respondents estimated that Italy can avoid that fate.

Spain needs are significantly higher than in the case of Italy and also the expected non-fulfillment of plans for budget cuts will be significantly larger. The Spanish economy suffers from the bursting of the housing bubble and moves back in the second recession since 2009. Unemployment in this country is the highest in the EU and reaching the level of 25%. The country is faced with a reduction in tax revenues and fiscal problems of some key regions.
47% of respondents believe that the country eventually fail because of their debts. This is the same proportion as in the spring survey.

Spain's public deficit this year will reach most likely to 6.4% of GDP, which is more than double the Union's goal set at 3%. Italy's deficit this year will be only at 2%.

50% of respondents estimated that the risk of bankruptcy also Portugal, the lowest proportion since the spring survey in 2011. 21% of respondents expect a collapse of Ireland, the lowest since mid-2010.
Fully 92% of respondents estimated bankruptcy of Greece. 56% of investors expect that the country leaving EMU by the end of next year. 69% of this step sees the end of 2014.

98% of respondents expect that Germany will fulfill its obligations in this respect, France believes 89% of respondents.
96% of respondents Default excludes the UK, 95% of similarly thinks about the U.S..

27% of respondents think that the worst of the crisis is behind us, which is 10% more than in the May survey.
69% of respondents means that any sign of improvement may only be temporary. In the May survey reported that 80% of respondents.

32% of respondents think that one or more countries will leave by the end of this year, the euro area. For the first time this year, most of the respondents estimated that the EMU will not leave any of the member countries. With the collapse of the euro zone this year counts for only 6% of respondents. The collapse of the European banking system expects only 16% of respondents versus 53% last August survey.
Only one in ten respondents estimated that the problems of the euro will cause collapse of the world economy.

79% of respondents stated that the euro area economy cools further compared to 84% who do smýšleli in the May survey. 56% of respondents estimated that the problems of the European economy will lead to social instability. In May, estimated that a full 84% of respondents.
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