TNBiz (TNBiz)
Macroeconomics  |  September 06, 2012 15:55:11

The situation will not improve in the industry, analysts estimate


PRAGUE (MEDIAFAX) - The situation in the industry due to weak domestic demand will be heavy in the coming months, experts say, good results by them on the automotive industry. According to information Thursday Czech Statistical Office (CSO) industry grew in July by 4.2 percent.

"The Czech industry continues to negatively affect the development of an uncertain global economy, especially the weakening of China, which are tied to large manufacturers in Germany and hence their Czech suppliers. Neither September and October, however, may not be in terms of production volumes bad, but expect pressure on margins, "said Petr Smutny, a partner in the Corporate Finance Department and restructuring PwC Czech Republic. The market situation in his words, changing very quickly, and companies should be prepared to respond flexibly to sudden opportunities.

Good results of the industry is CSOB analyst Petr Dufek still automakers who manage to increase production despite falling European market. "In addition, thrive and manufacturers of electrical equipment. A very promising fall as well as new contracts annually grow by 16 percent, mainly due to foreign demand," said Dufek.

"Despite looking rather optimistic numbers can not expect in coming months no miracles. Situation in the industry probably will remain difficult, not only under the influence of weak domestic demand, but also because of the complicated situation in the eurozone," said analyst group Citfing Jiri Simek.

Analyst KPMG Czech Republic Jan Linhart emphasizes that industrial production is the cornerstone of the Czech economy. Statistics of industrial production, according to him, a litmus test of the entire national economy."July's statistics arouse mixed feelings. On the one hand, it is pleasant to find that both within the July, and for the first seven months of this year, industrial production increased slightly. This means that the crisis scenarios, the industry has not met yet., On the other hand, However, this growth is far behind what we would like to see, "said Linhart.

Some positive indication of the development of the following months, a analyst Confederation of Industry and Transport Bohuslav Čížek annual increase orders by 16 percent, especially where increased orders from abroad (+22.7 percent) and industry with the traditional workhorse of the production of motor vehicles or machinery and equipment . "This is a value slightly above our expectations and good news about the state of our industrial businesses," said Cizek.As the same time points, the results need to evaluate very carefully and not be subject to considerable optimism. "The results are not very affected by the high comparison base last year," he says.

Summer months by GE Money Bank analyst Peter Gapka generally characterized by lower industrial production in this period of relative calm, the Czech production flourished. After the June drop, which was revised to -2.7 percent, according to him, it's a nice change. "An analysis but must wait until next month when we'll see how the industry will result in a situation where a higher base. To illustrate, in June 2011, the production was above the average for the year 2005 by more than 27 percent in July to were only five percent, and the same trend can be observed this year, "concluded Gapko.

"In the July data from industry are certainly positive signs. Notably, the value of new orders and a sign that companies are doing more oriented to eastern markets, which have significantly higher growth potential than the west," said Patria Finance analyst Tomas Vlk and added: "On the other hand, the data was influenced and helped schedule and basic effect. Additionally, a key export market remains the euro area and the outlook there lately considerably worse." For the whole of this year, analysts expect the company Patria Finance of the Czech industry is no strong result, growth should be slightly above zero.

The July industrial production in the Czech Republic increased compared to the same period last year by 4.2 percent, in the monthly comparison, after seasonal adjustment increased by 1.1 percent.

After adjusting for the number of working days increased according to the information CSO July's industrial production in the Czech Republic by 1.7 percent. In July 2012, compared to the same month of the previous year by one working day. After seasonal adjustment (including WDA) industrial production increased by 1.1 percent.

Jan Soukup, soukupj@mediafax.cz

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