World markets  |  September 06, 2012 18:57:26

Draghi kicked the ball back to politicians / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 3rd week 9th 2,012


Waiting for new information from the mouth of the ECB and the Fed is already almost over. Friday was a long-awaited central bankers Fed symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors focused on any mention about possible further round of quantitative easing. Did not. Bernanke stuck to their traditional rhetoric and repeated the Fed's readiness to intervene if economic conditions require it. We will continue to closely monitor the unemployment rate, which despite the implementation of earlier rounds of QE could push below 8%. Fed Monetary Committee meeting held on the 12th to 13 September and will again become the most watched events of the week. The U.S. economy in recent months, however, goes tough satisfactory macroeconomic indicators, and so I do not think there is a notification of the next round of monetary easing.Certainly during the week will talk about the many measures that the Fed can imagine, and as it seems to me feasible extension hold the promise of low interest rates beyond the end of 2014.

> Particular attention will be paid in the next week decision of the German Constitutional Court on whether the ESM rescue fund in accordance with the German constitution, or the design shall undergo decisive changes. As generally expected that the Constitutional Court ESM swept off the table, any negative verdict will have a very negative impact on the financial markets.

Today ended a two-day meetings of the Bank Board of the ECB, which traditionally culminated Draghi press conference. Already during the previous day, however, Bloomberg has come up with quite detailed information about what will be discussed today on the council. This information proved to be absolutely correct. So: Draghi unveiled a new program called Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT), in which the ECB will buy in the secondary market for government bonds with maturities of one to three years and will be used only to purchase bonds from countries which have asked for help and the euro area will meet the agreed austerity programs. In violation of the terms of the bailout ECB stops buying their bonds. Important aspects of these purchases is that it will be published on a weekly basis in a relatively strong details.ECB publish a volume of the purchased bonds, the issuer, maturity and are not yet claim any priority rights for the payment of such bonds. Still it is necessary to mention that these operations do not limited volume, the market will then be sterilized and will therefore be the quantitative easing.

Although today introduced measures perceived largely positive, one blob is still there. And this unending resistance from the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann as a single person voted against OMT.

One question is answered and under pressure again find themselves European politicians to also do their part in finding a way out of the debt crisis. This is also at the press conference, Draghi repeatedly challenge.Big step yet will be introduced as early as next week, when the European Commission published its proposal for Union Bank, which is considered the next step to deepen European integration and correction of errors in the original design.

George Šimara, CYRRUS

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 3 9th 2012th

Week: 3 9th 2,012


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
31st 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
952.00
930.20
930
ˇ -2.29
920-945
0
5
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 090,84
12 904,20
12800
ˇ -1.43
12785 - 13200
1
4
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 066,96
3 025,40
3,007
ˇ -1.35
2 950 - 3 150
1
4
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 711,50
5 661,20
5,650
ˇ -0.88
5550 - 5850
1
4
DAX (Germany)
6 970,79
6 890,80
6,890
ˇ -1.15
6700 - 7050
1
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 839,91
8 743,20
8,600
ˇ -1.09
8506 - 9120
2
3

Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
31st 8th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
952.00
941.20
941
ˇ -1.13
915-960
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 090,84
13 205,40
13200
^0.88
12950 - 13400
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 066,96
3 093,80
3,099
^ 0.88
3020 - 3 150
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 711,50
5 821,20
5,800
^ 1.92
5620 - 6 000
4
1
DAX (Germany)
6 970,79
7 023,00
7,075
^ 0.75
6740 - 7250
3
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 839,91
8 963,20
8,900
^ 1.40
8750 - 9300
3
2

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one or six months compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimate experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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Draghi vykopl míč zpět k politikům / BIG EXPERT - zahraniční trhy: týden od 3. 9. 2012

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