Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  September 07, 2012 08:26:00

ECB disappoint markets, the euro against the dollar, however, significant gains ascribe

The euro against the dollar during Thursday traded most of the day near their morning levels around 1.2610 USD / EUR. When press conference brought higher volatility, but even so, the euro is only slightly stronger. Meeting of the ECB disappointed markets, good data came from the U.S. labor market.

The ECB left rates unchanged at 0.75% (according to Bloomberg from 58 institutions expected rate cut 28, ie just a minority). A subsequent press conference did not bring too much new compared to what we already know, the important thing is that neither disappoint. The ECB will implement a new program to buy bonds to replace the earlier SMP (Securities Markets Programme). This new program will be called OMTs (Outright Monetary Transactions).Purchases will be limited (of course, there is one limit, and that the size of the offer of the bonds) and targeting Baccalaureate will be from one to three years. While purchases will be conditioned by the fact that the country will receive aid from the European rescue funds or will borrow from PCL (Precautionary Credit Line). Purchases should be fully sterilized and the ECB should be in the same position as the other investors (same seniority). In the event that the country will not meet its objectives, bond purchases will be terminated.

Yesterday released data from the U.S. labor market showed at 201 thousand. new jobs in the private sector (the ADP report). The decline was recorded for the new application in unemployment, which securely holds below 400 thousand.(Level historically consistent with stagnation of employment, a lower number of the applications were consistent with its growth). This data certainly raised the expectations of today's key labor market report for August. According to market consensus expected 130 thousand. new jobs (over 163 thousand. during the previous month). In the private sector, then the expected 140 thousand. new places. The unemployment rate should then stagnate at 8.3%. Our colleagues from SG expecting worse (due to the weaker economy and the negative seasonality), but yesterday's data support rather better result.

The euro area will be interesting to watch the development of German industrial production and exports for July.Yesterday published new factory orders in the same month it grows by 0.5% m / m did not disappoint, just might catch today's German data.

Author: Jiri Skop

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