Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 07, 2012 10:49:18

Morning comment 7.9 - ECB and macro-


Key Events

·         Yesterday was packed with economic data and events over which protruded a long-awaited meeting of the European Central Bank.

·         Czech Republic: Czech Statistical Office released a classic triplet fresh statistics from industry, construction and foreign trade in July. Industrial production year surprisingly rose by 4.2%, which was, however, partly due to a higher number of working days.The surprise was well taken care of new orders increase by as much as 16%. Construction made further decline, even if this time only about 0.5%. Overall, the situation in the construction dismal. Lack of new orders and production is below 2005. On the contrary, foreign trade continues to thrive, although there are evident signs of slowing. The trade balance ended in a surplus of 25.8 billion crowns. Exports grew by 10.3% and imports by 4.2%. Overall, the results of the July statistics easily evaluated positively. But one swallow does not make spring.

·         Eurozone: The European Central Bank left the meeting yesterday surprisingly interest rates unchanged (main rate at 0.75%). At the subsequent press conference, ECB President M. Draghi announced the program of bond purchases in the secondary market, in unlimited quantities and filled yesterday as speculation. However, the ECB will buy bonds only those countries that will benefit from assistance from the rescue fund (EFSF and ESM) and meet their conditions. Purchases should apply to bonds with shorter maturities up to 3 years. Now waiting for next week, when should the German constitutional court decide the ESM.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Expectations associated with the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference outcome supported risky assets including Central European currencies. Significantly strengthened the crown and the zloty.The Hungarian forint lost on the contrary, when it was reported that Prime Minister Orban described the conditions for a loan from the International Monetary Fund as unacceptable.

·         Crown during the morning got to new highs against the euro and the U.S. dollar and in the afternoon then spread. Against the euro in the afternoon went below the level of 24.60 CZK / EUR against the dollar below 19.50 CZK / USD. The appreciation trend continues crown.

·         Polish zloty currency was the strongest region, while drastically strengthened to the level 4.13 PLN / EUR. The Hungarian forint losses ascribed to the contrary, almost 1% and decreasing the level of 287 HUF / EUR.

·         Headed to fresh highs against the dollar and the euro. Shortly after noon reached the level of 1,265 USD / EUR and just below this level moved in the end of the day. Euro remains in appreciation trend, although its further continuation may have some doubts.

Today's expected dates and events

·         Czech Republic: GDP - the final figure for the second quarter, including the structure.

·U.S.: Change in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

Miroslav Novak
Analyst
AKCENTA as

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