Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  September 10, 2012 16:31:00

Crown to hold near the border 24.50 CZK / EUR

Crown during Monday moved the interbank market at approximately 10haléřovém band above the 24.50 CZK / EUR. While still in the morning had a tendency to consolidation, weakened in the afternoon. It was not a nothing dramatic, euro more expensive just a few cents.

Published macroeconomic indicators came and went without response markets. Consumer prices in August fell slightly by 0.1%, which was below market expectations. In comparison, annual inflation accelerated from July's 3.1% to 3.3%. In comparison with the CNB forecast is 0.1 percentage points lower. Data confirmed that there is demand in the economy, inflationary pressures. CNB does not have to be plagued by the current inflationary developments in the next steps to support the economy. We expect the central bank to reduce its September meeting repo rate by 25 bps.

The unemployment rate in August, in line with expectations stagnated at 8.3%. The prospects for future development are definitely not pink. End of the year is traditionally marked by the disappearance of seasonal jobs. The rise in the unemployment rate will end the year evident when should climb over 9%.

Yields on the swap and bond markets during today significantly changed. The Ministry of Finance introduced emission calendar for October with a view of the whole issue Q4. The auction is planning to sell bonds at most, for 20 billion CZK, except that counts with more emissions savings bonds (10-20 CZK billion) and net issuance of treasury bills around 27 billion CZK. According to our estimates, the government should have ensured the end of November all borrowing needs. For the next year it plans to use brute 239 billion CZK.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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