Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  September 14, 2012 10:24:30

Joint Stock breakfast 14.09 - QE3 in the world, Japan, EUROFIN macro


Overview of the main event for Friday, the 14th September 2012

USA  

Started QE3  

ASIA

Japan revises economic growth

EUROPE

Meeting begins min.fin EZ

SUPERSPAD

x

Upcoming Events

11:00 EZ inflation
14:30 U.S. inflation
14:30 Retail
15:15 Industrial production
15:55 Uni of Michigan Confidence

USA

Bernanke

  • Filled and even slightly exceeded expectations
  • QE3 announced an open-ended financial or = not set time limit bond purchases also announced the extension term rates close to 0% by mid-2015
  • The open end is a mild surprise, it makes space Fed intervene basically indefinitely as needed
  • They start shopping today
  • Operation Twist will continue until the end of the year (according to plan)
  • Will buy bonds 40mld USD per month until the economy gets closer to the Fed targets = sustainable improvement unemployment rate is from 2/2009 of 8%, currently 8.1%.
  • Fed targets the unemployment rate to 7%
  • According to the new forecast at the end of next year, unemployment is 7.6% - 7.9%
  • Fed will buy the MBS are bonds whose underlying assets are mortgages
  • Now appeared fears of inflation - the Fed targets to 2% and the current state of the economy does not look like inflation problem
  • Fears of inflation were even before QE2 and have proved to be wrong
  • The threat of inflation is the credibility of the central bank - and the Fed has a high

The Fed also increased the estimate of the economy for 2013 (from 2.5% to 2.75%) and 2014 (from 3.25% to 3.4%)

Politics - helped by the Democrats (Obama)

  • If Romney wins the presidential election, it may disturb markets, Obama would have been better for the shares winner.
  • Romney into it right away, and that inflation will rise and wants to change the Fed's mandate

Conclusion

  • The Fed has created a time of relative calm that followed more data on the state of the economy and labor market
  • This will further reduce the risk premia
  • Now, for a long time all focus on Europe
  • Just recall that Bernanke's mandate ends in 2014
  • In the U.S. in the coming months will be watched very inflation

ASIA

  • Asian markets reacted positively to Bernanke's speech

Japan

  • Government lowers growth estimate economy this year
  • They expect a recession

EUROPE

  • Meeting begins min.fin EZ Cyprus

Schaeuble

  • Betrays a request from Spain for a total bailout, if not quite acute for Spain
  • It could cause a new wave of nervousness in the markets
  • Conversely France is the pushing
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