Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 19, 2012 09:04:01

Morning comment 09.19 - Singer, ZEW, the euro lost


Key Events

·         CR: In the absence of economic data from the domestic economy attracted the attention of the word governor of the Czech National Bank (CNB) M. Singer. He confirmed that the probability of a fall in interest rates at the next meeting of the board is high, indicating the possibility of using other tools to support the domestic economy. So he spoke in a similar vein as a few weeks ago Governor Tomšík. That the conservative Board proceeded to buy bonds on the model of the Fed or the ECB, however, still seems unlikely.

·         Germany: Index of Economic Sentiment (ZEW) stopped after a few months of his fall, in September when its value rose to -18.2 from the previous -25.5 point point.

VVývoj the foreign exchange market

·         The crown was the weakest currency today not only in Central Europe, but also not the weakest currency in the basket 170 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Overall, developments in the region greatly unbalanced and each of the monitored Central European currencies more or less went their own way.

·         Significant weakening of the crown can be attributed both to the words yesterday of the CNB Governor M. Singer and also technical factors, mainly by activating the stop-loss orders above the 24.60 CZK / EUR. The currency pair is trading with the euro from early quotations around the level of 24.60 CZK / EUR shifted by more than 20 cents above the level of 24.80 CZK / EUR.Krona against the U.S. dollar at the end of the level tested 19 CZK / USD.

·         Selling pressure on the crown can not be ruled out in the days and even in the first half of next week, before the meeting of the CNB Bank Board. Corona losses should, however, be limited by the boundary of 25 CZK / EUR.In the medium term at least crown broke lasting appreciation trend since the beginning of July. From the perspective of the coming weeks, seems the most likely option trading in a lateral trend below the 25 CZK / EUR. After CNB meeting next week (9.27) could be on the further development of the Crown clearly.

·         Of the remaining Central European currencies also lost yesterday Polish zloty, which has weakened at the end of the afternoon up to 4.12 PLN / EUR. On the contrary, the Hungarian forint proved their morning losses wiped out and the end of the day, trading near the surface 283 HUF / EUR.

·         Losses during the previous day and scored the common European currency in the pair with the U.S. dollar. During the afternoon was no exception QUOTATION below 1,305 USD / EUR. Other benefits of the euro should be limited to roughly the level of $ 1.33 / EUR. Due to the rapid appreciation of the euro in recent weeks increases the likelihood of correction.

Today's expected dates and events

·         USA: Data from the real estate market - sales of already built houses started construction.

Miroslav Novak
Analyst
AKCENTA as

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