Research (Investicniweb.cz)
World markets  |  September 19, 2012 17:01:37

Wall Street is waiting until the end of downhill, warns Morgan Stanley



In December 2011 Adam Parker, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, set a target price for the S & P 500 at 1,167 points. Assumed slow growth of the global economy, weak corporate profits, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the unfavorable ratio of inventories and sales of individual firms. From his perspective he did not bear in September 2012 not discourage - or quantitative easing, even strong bull market of the last months.

Currently, the S & P 500 moves above 1450 points. Adam Parker, however, in their pessimistic outlook persists. Why?

  • Corporate profits are still inconclusive, plus much fluctuating.

  • Historically, the tariff levels are extreme (low and high) bearish signal. Currently the rates are low in the U.S., the yield on 10-year government bonds is lower than inflation.

  • Valuation based on earnings per share (P / E) for the current period of historically high. According to Parker investors pay unnecessarily high prices based on cyclically higher corporate profits.

Based on the weighted average and the probability of each scenario Parker based target price of 1,167 points in the S & P 500

View S & P 500 to end 2012

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