Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 20, 2012 09:27:09

Morning comment 20.09 - Hampl, U.S. macro, CEE currencies under pressure

Key Events

·         CR: Governor of the Czech National Bank (CNB), Mojmir Hampl, told Reuters news agency said that the CNB has no reason to use a non-standard instruments of monetary policy, as economic fundamentals of the country are healthy. What needs by Czech banker sentiment is improving citizens under the influx of negative reports began to significantly save money and spend less. One of the current goals of central bankers according to Hampl would be positive rhetoric towards the public, so that households start to spend more and more companies to invest. In contrast, for saving actions should remain government.

·         USA: Total positively can evaluate new data from the real estate market. Number of newly built homes in August increased to 750 thousand. and the number of building permits issued to 803 thousand. Number of sales of existing homes rose to 4.82 miles .

VVývoj the foreign exchange market

·         Central European currencies during yesterday were under selling pressure. During the morning hours were the worst affected trading sentiment in the markets and this trend could be reversed by the end of the day.

·         The currency pair with the euro, the crown exceptions tucked under Hadin 24.90 CZK / EUR. Traded within a narrow band několikahaléřovém. Krona against the U.S. dollar in the morning went beyond the 19 CZK / USD and above this level of trading conducted through the day. Czech currency will lose during the night.

·         Selling pressure on the crown can not be ruled out, even in the days before the CNB Bank Board. Crown loss, however, should be limited by borders 25 CZK / EUR. In the medium term at least interrupted crown appreciation trend continuing since the beginning of July. From the perspective of the coming weeks, seems the most likely option trading in a lateral trend below the 25 CZK / EUR. After CNB meeting next week (9.27) could be on the further development of the Crown clearly.

·         Of the remaining Central European currencies failed to zloty to the euro currency pair weakened towards the end of the day to the level of 4.15 PLN / EUR and losses did not spare even during the night. Was relatively stable Hungarian forint, which hovered around the level of 283 HUF / EUR.

·Support the common European currency, the Bank of Japan announcement (BOJ) on the increased asset purchase only briefly. Weakened during the morning hours and a few shops and was below 1.30 USD / EUR. Euro lost in the night from Wednesday to Thursday.

Today's expected dates and events               

·         Germany: The index of purchasing managers from industry.

·         Eurozone: The index of purchasing managers from industry.

·         USA: Weekly applications for unemployment benefits, industrial index of around Philadelphia.

Miroslav Novak

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