Roman Pilíšek (Zlaté rezervy)
Investor's window  |  September 25, 2012 10:47:19

In the coming years, we expect the continuation phase distribution, consider the tremendous volatility!


For the fourth week in a row rising price of gold and silver. In the first half of the year, however, the situation was quite different. Many analysts thought that ended a 10-year bull market in gold.

PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 13px/19.5px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; WHITE-SPACE: normal; Orphans: 2; LETTER-SPACING: normal; COLOR: rgb (51,51,51); BORDER-TOP : 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px "> According to the Dow Theory is growing phase market is divided into 3 main sections - accumulation, participation and distribution. Already a year ago when the price of gold reached yet its historical highs, we pointed to the fact that   distribution phase has already begun. Despite the one-year consolidation of the market in the long term, nothing has changed. On the contrary, there has been a confirmation, both in terms of technical and fundamental analysis.

"Printing new money" for an indefinite period of time and therefore, we believe that there is currently no limit price, how far could the value of gold in the years to climb.   This fact again confirmed the path to the distribution phase, the sharpest growth phase throughout the upward cycle.

OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT: 13px/19.5px Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; WHITE-SPACE: normal; Orphans: 2; LETTER- SPACING: normal; COLOR: rgb (51,51,51); BORDER-TOP: 0px; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px "> But what may now stop for a short period of growth of these metals?   It is mainly the structure of open positions (COT) on the COMEX exchange. Since the publication of our last analysis, this structure has changed considerably. Investors who follow both metals market actively, you will remember what the gold price decline (-15%) and silver (-30% in 3 business days) occurred in September 2011 or at the end of February this year. According to Ted Butler stood behind a huge price drop SHORT (sell) position of the largest investment banks.   At present there are many of these positions at the same values, some banks even higher.

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Analýza_zlata_24_9_2012_ZLATÉ_REZERVY

On the other hand, if the physical market has a supply shortage of investment gold and silver, as we have seen it before, it could get the price of gold in a very short time to as low as 2000 USD / ounce. However, we believe that to achieve this price we will have to wait.  The physical market in gold and silver, while gaining an ever greater importance,   but for now remains the main creator of the "paper" Exchange COMEX.

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In Czech crowns gold price reached historical highs last week, approximately 34 140, - CZK per troy ounce. In the coming days we expect price movements between the above-mentioned value and support the price of 32.800, - CZK per troy ounce.   The market has a great potential to break the resistance of one year and reach other temporary price target: 37.000 CZK / ounce. An important factor will be the development of the CZK / USD.

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"Buying the dips" - buying the decline (in prices).

Jan Železník
Gold holdings



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