Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  September 26, 2012 09:26:49

Morning comment 26.09 - Eurodollar on a swing, waiting for CNB

Key Events

·          Although yesterday's economic calendar was mostly empty, if not their central European region. Was published fresh data from the Polish economy and Hungary met the local central bank. In contrast, in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic no vital statistics were not disclosed.

·          PL: August retail sales results indicated further decline dynamics (annual growth of 5.8% from July's 6.9%). The unemployment rate thus rose to 12.4% from July's 12.3%. After the results of these statistics so again somewhat increased chance that the Polish central bankers (NBP) will proceed at a meeting in early October to cut interest rates.

·          Hungary: The Hungarian central bank meeting yesterday for the second time in a row proceeded to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%. The move is partly a response expected forint and were not particularly significant.

·          U.S.: Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in September to 70.3 points from 60.6 the previous point.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·          Development of central European currencies against the euro during the previous day was different. The strongest currency, the Polish zloty, the worst on the contrary, acted Hungarian forint. Crown de facto stagnated. Central European currencies were affected how news from the region (meeting the Hungarian central bank, the Polish data), as well as events from abroad. There were reports that the legal department of the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank examines whether the planned program to buy government bonds (amount and duration) of the ECB is not contrary to the Treaties of the European Union.

·          The currency pair euro-koruna during yesterday's de facto stagnated and trade to be mostly above the 24.90 CZK / EUR. Exchange rate against the dollar during the day dimensioned mainly near the surface 19.30 CZK / USD. From today morning but crown weakened quite significantly.

·One of the key events for the further development of the crown remains Thursday's meeting of the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank. Market expectations are set to decline in key interest rates by 25 basis points. It will be interesting also to see how central bankers stand up to any introduction of non-standard monetary policy tools.

·During the day we managed the Polish zloty, which could strengthen against the euro, even below the level of 4.13 PLN / EUR. At the end of the afternoon, however, began to turn card and the zloty lost. The Hungarian forint weakened during the afternoon and headed to the surface 284 HUF / EUR. All CE currencies are from today morning under selling pressure.

·As the swing trading took place on the main currency pair. Euro weakened below the first level of 1.29 USD / EUR, but positive U.S. data and defense plans by ECB President Draghi M. weakening of the euro stopped. At the end of the day, however, the common European currency again came under selling pressure. Worse performance of the euro in the last week can be considered as a correction and the euro in the coming weeks should go back over the aforementioned level of 1.30 USD / EUR.

Today's expected dates and events               

·          Germany: CPI (September).

·          USA: Sales of new buildings (August).

Miroslav Novak



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