Investor's window  |  September 26, 2012 14:15:06

Greek tragedy has once again knocking on the door

Remember the Greece? Country that falsified data in order to get into the euro area, and the country where it is capable Statistical Office revised deficit until it will increase from 5% to 15.6%?   About Greece for a time ceased to speak after got another loan from the EU and in the election narrowly won by pro-European parties that were able to form a majority government. In this week but all reminded again and again after his kind. According to information from the German Der Spiegel is Troika inspectors found that it will need an additional 30 billion euros in addition to the aid already granted for the period 2012 - 2014.It is approximately 10 billion euros per year, which just this year meant the deficit increased to twice the original request threes.

This is due to a shortfall in revenue, which surprised but perhaps only Troika inspectors who in their calculations for assistance from the very start counting with overly optimistic estimates.

How, then, with additional thirty billion and the fact that perhaps Greece will need more help to deal? Solutions are basically three. The first is another loan.There but for the country where the strike had even the tax collectors had to offer additional savings equal to political suicide and may threaten the very existence of the pro-European coalition. The second variant is another round of debt forgiveness, which, after all, recently asked creditors and Greek Prime Minister Samaras. Unlike the first round but this time drained mainly Europe, because together with the IMF for over loans, more than half of the Greek debt. Cost-Benefit analysis thus suggests rapidly diminishing marginal utility of both solutions, making the solution space opens up number three. This is still successfully overlooked the elephant in the room, in the form of performances from the eurozone countries and the subsequent bankruptcy.It is this possibility is inflected lot lately, especially in Germany, where patience with Greece not only taxpayers, but also the Bundesbank and many government politicians.

Further steps in the rescue of Greece should be discussed in mid-October at the EU summit, where he has also decided to release the next tranche of rescue loans. Whether summit outcome, it is expected that Greece will begin in the next few weeks to get back to the first page of world newspapers. Overbought stock markets and after the September rescue mission of American, European and Japanese central banks may finally get a room for at least partial correction already four months continuous and nearly linear growth.

Jaroslav Brychta

Jaroslav Brychta - principal analyst at X-Trade Brokers

  • He graduated from the Economic Policy at the Silesian University in Opava. The XTB operates since 2007, currently as chief analyst. It mainly deals with the analysis of exchange rates, as well as bonds, the banking sector and monetary policy. His professional articles and interviews contributes to most of the leading media.
  • Logo XTB X-Trade Brokers (XTB) is an international brokerage house that provides its clients with professional trading conditions for forex, commodities, stocks and options. Its services are constantly improving, as evidenced by a number of international awards and it is confirmed by the titles Broker Forex broker and year, obtained at the Investment Summit MoneyExpo 2012th

    In addition to the standard menu XTB allows Forex traders direct access to the market, thus enabling them to reach the lowest spreads. Novice traders in options may exercise the optionOptional already opened an account with a minimum deposit of 2500, - CZK . For XTB offers its clients advice on trading, 24 in the Czech language support, free training courses and daily news from the financial markets.
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