Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  September 26, 2012 16:22:00

Crown in the middle of a slightly weaker

Czech koruna weakened slightly in the middle of the morning levels below 24.95 CZK / EUR above this level. According to Reuters, even implemented a trade for 25,015 CZK / EUR. The Hungarian forint lost around 16th hours of 0.3%, Polish zloty then 0.1%. The losses ranged as other risky assets, such as European equities write off around 2%.
For economic data, we have not seen anything in the region of central bankers then spoke Polish governor Belka, who stated that rate cuts in Poland not only one-off, but the beginning of the cycle. The first drop rates should be discussed in October.
Tomorrow will meet the Czech National Bank. According to a Reuters survey expected to drop rates by 25 bps by most analysts, only 3 out of 21 think that the CNB will leave rates at 0.50%. With rate cuts fully calculated and the money market. However, it is certainly not a hundred per cent issue. Voting will be very tight for the lower rates should raise a hand Governor V. Tomsik, L. licked and probably Governor M. Singer. The lower rates will need one more vote, which could come from the Vice-Governor M. Hampl and P. Řežábek. If we look at history, the latter voted for a stable rate since February 2010, it's hard to say whether it inflationary data from recent convince to change their minds. And the last comment Lieutenant-Governor M. Hampl trailed again rather hawkish spirit.The interest rates even said he was not sure whether it should be another rate cut, but that can not yet say how it will vote. For more information on our outlook for CNB (including possible non-standard steps that might Board discussed) can be found on our website (
Czech swap curve fell on Wednesday after its entire length, the shorter end of the 2 cells and medium and longer end by 6 bp. The money market is fully expected rate cut at tomorrow's meeting, the likelihood of another interest rate cut is then 60% (in terms of market share). If the Board rates unchanged, it would certainly be on the short end of the curve shifted upwards.Crown would theoretically be strengthened (in the event that the rate of change), but the current correction in risky assets and worsening sentiment among investors should defend those profits.

Author: Jiri Skop

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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