Research (Conseq)
Currencies  |  September 27, 2012 09:01:12

Koruna strengthened sharply over the summer - it will last even longer, and what we expect at the end of a course?

At the end of June he attacked limit of 26 koruna CZK / EUR. Then it started to strengthen the crown and by mid-September gained almost 6%. Supported by the interest of foreign investors, who, thanks to loose monetary policy and measures to remedy the debt crisis of the world's major central banks buying risky assets, which include also the Czech koruna, hence it denominated securities. Strengthening of the Czech crown is also caused by the excellent results of foreign trade. Since then weakened again and now trades around 25 CZK / EUR.

Current short-term trend will reverse the weakening in our opinion, take a few more weeks, because of the expected reduction in interest rates by the Czech National Bank. Even in the autumn, but should stop and crown returns to its long-term appreciating trend. At the end of the year we expect rate at 24.50.

Supporting the exchange rate will be in the coming months, the export performance of the Czech industry and the fact that, unlike the neighboring countries (Poland, Hungary) endanger our currency borrowing of households in foreign currencies.Ensures the stability of the crown also financing the current account deficit foreign direct investments, which are long-term, not short-term capital, as in other emerging economies (eg Turkey).

Against the U.S. dollar, the crown moved in a similar trend, strengthening it in this case was even greater. For the same comparative period, ie from the end of June to mid-September koruna strengthened by more than 10% and is currently moving on the surface of 19.30 CZK / USD. By the end of the year we expect a slight weakening of the koruna against the dollar on the edge of 19.60.


David Kufa,

Conseq Investment Management, Inc.


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