Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Currencies  |  October 01, 2012 09:49:04

Weekly 39th week - CNB meeting, the crown remains after pressure


Key Events

·          A key event at home was the meeting of the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the subsequent press conference with Governor M. Singer. Czech National Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.25%. Downwards were also revised other rates - at 0.1% discount and Lombard to 0.75%. Governor Singer also suggested that bankers in the future considering possible interventions on the foreign exchange market for the strengthening crown.

·The worse performance data of the euro against the dollar in the last two weeks, to a large degree the situation in Spain. The government has announced that it intends next year to make further budget cuts of 40 billion euros. Spanish banks stress tests unleashing Oliver Wyman showed that, if implemented, will be a negative scenario 7 of the 14 tested banks need additional capital in the amount of 59.3 billion euros. This would mean a rise in the government deficit this year to 7.4%. At the end of this year is expected ratio of accumulated government debt to GDP above 90%.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·          In the second half of last week, the development of Central European currencies against the euro diverged. While the Polish zloty was successful and strengthened, and the Hungarian forint perspective of the two-day de facto stagnated. The weakest currency region was clearly the Czech koruna, which weakened especially on Thursday in response to the words of the CNB Governor M. Singer of any foreign exchange intervention. Crown lost not only against the euro but also against their regional counterparts.

·          The currency pair euro-koruna during Thursday afternoon definitely went above the level of 25 CZK / EUR. Above this level took place during trading Friday, when the national holiday in the Czech Republic. Against the U.S. dollar crown deepened losses and exchange rate at the end of the week dimensioned above 19.50 CZK / USD.

·          Crown remains under selling pressure is likely in the first half of the current week. During October, however, should head back to stronger levels - below 25 CZK / EUR, partly to defuse tensions around any steps by the CNB.

·          Central European currencies of the most successful Polish zloty. On Friday, shortly after noon, several shops was even below the 4.10 PLN / EUR. Zloty but their profits at the end of the day surrendered. On Friday, the forint was unable to be returned to the level of 285 HUF / EUR.

·         The main currency pair common European currency remains under selling pressure. On Friday morning, although seemed a turn, but during the course of the afternoon came back below 1.29 USD / EUR. Currently does not help the development of the euro in Spain. In October, however, we can expect a gradual return of the euro above $ 1.30 level / EUR and above.

Today's expected dates and events               

·          Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the individual EU countries and for the euro area as a whole.

·         CR: performance of the state budget.

·          USA: The index of activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM).

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