Markets  |  October 02, 2012 10:42:24

How to Trade Friday's data from the U.S. labor market?

This week on Friday for the first time from the announcement of QE3 published data from the U.S. labor market. Specifically, the unemployment rate and the number of newly-created jobs for the month of September.

Ben Bernanke has made it clear what the point of his third round of quantitative easing. It is the support of the labor market and reducing unemployment. Question is whether these monetary policy objectives already reflected in Friday's data from the labor market. Most analysts, however, believe that the labor market rather surprising us negatively, despite lepšícím the data consumer confidence and housing market in the U.S..

The positive development of the labor market and job creation is the most important indicator of business sentiment.Employers, however, are still in the creation of new jobs very careful and some even still struggling with the defense of existing ones.

Indicator of new jobs created in the U.S. during the last half of the year slipping significantly from their mean values ??(100,000 new jobs per month). In the event that this Friday will see like numbers, so that the currency markets will have a significant impact. A different situation occurs in the case but that the labor market will surprise negatively, number around 90 000 Then he could weaken the U.S. dollar. It is important to keep in mind that other than the euro, the U.S. dollar traded in other currency pairs, for example, with the Japanese yen (JPY), or Mexican Peso (MXN).

Now currency pair USD / MXN is shown in the graph below.

This currency pair is already two weeks moving in a narrow channel, which puncture could also send a signal to a further weakening of the dollar.

Mexican peso is highly correlated with U.S. equity index S & P 500

The graph is a comparison of the currency pair USD / MXN and stock index S & P 500 As a rule, the weakening dollar is generally in favor of the U.S. stock index, which potrvzuje the chart. When the dollar weakens (strengthens MXN) and the S & P 500 strengthens and vice versa.

In favor of strengthening the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar speaks diferenciél interest among Mexican (4.5%) and the U.S. interest rate (0.25%).

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