Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  October 03, 2012 09:26:22

Morning comment 03.10 - Draws attention to Spain, the Crown was successful

Key Events

·          Yesterday was interesting that not much interesting happened. August growth in producer prices in the euro area (by 2.7% and decreased by 0.9%) had no response, just as a less significant data from the U.S. - Activity Index in New York and the number of cars sold.

·         Attention of financial markets will continue to deny Spain. Speculation that countries in the near future (perhaps as early as next week) officially ask for financial assistance, had slightly positive impact on strengthening the common European currency against the dollar. On the other hand, concerns remain that the Moody's downgrade accede to the country, what would mean that the Spanish bonds will shift from investment to speculative zone.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·          In the Central region fared the Czech koruna. Has slightly depreciated against the euro and Polish zloty Hungarian forint. The absence of important regional and international data is signed under a relatively peaceful conduct business without any major changes.

·          The crown was CEE region's leader. The currency pair in the morning with the euro trading near the surface 25.10 CZK / EUR, but in the afternoon the crown to strengthen and shortly after 15 pm, even briefly traded below 25 CZK / EUR. Tuesday, however, closed the crown a few cents above this critical threshold. Considerable gains have scored against the U.S. dollar, while the exchange rate during the afternoon hours dimensioned below 19.30 CZK / USD.

·          Crown at the beginning of a new month is successful and could partially erase losses from the second half of last week. Total depreciation of the koruna in the second half of September can be considered too fast in the coming weeks, we can expect a return of the Czech currency stronger levels below 25 CZK / EUR, despite the threat of the Czech National Bank's foreign exchange interventions.

·          Polish zloty against the euro fluctuated around the level of 4.10 PLN / EUR and the end of the day easily lost. Key to the development of the Polish currency will today's decision by the local central bank interest rates. Given that the Polish economy goes recently becoming worse statistics, current change rate downward likely alternative.The Hungarian forint against the euro traded near unchanged levels just above 285 HUF / EUR.

·          The common European currency against the dollar could be further enhanced. Euro gains were limited and at the end of the course be dimensioned only slightly above the level of 1.29 USD / EUR. The relatively peaceful nature of trading was a reflection of the absence of important economic statistics and reports.During the month of October is expected to gradually return to the surface of the euro $ 1.30 / EUR and above.

Today's expected dates and events               

·          Today is the view of the statistics substantially more interesting than the previous day.

·          In the Central region, attention will be focussed to Poland, where central bankers will decide on interest rates. Can be expected to decrease main rate to 4.50%.

·          In the euro area will be published in August retail sales. Is expected to further decline.

·         USA: Changing jobs in the private sector in September (the ADP report).

Miroslav Novak



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