Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  October 05, 2012 16:01:46

Summary for the 40th Week - Spain, CNB, crown macro


The August sales drop can be largely attributed to a decrease in sales of new vehicles. From a numbers did not make premature conclusions, but given that the sharp slump in sales of new cars have arrived to Germany, it is possible that the decline in sales in the segment of motor vehicles will continue in this country.

Spain remains the center of attention even after the summer tourist season in the country is slowly ending. Waiting on whether the country is finally asks for financial assistance, recalls some of Samuel Beckett play "Waiting for Godot". Unlike Godot plays but eventually comes, or Spain for financial aid requests. The question is not if but when.There was speculation about next week, which, however, firmly rejected the local Premier M. Rajoy. Appropriate term requests for assistance appears just before or at the EU summit held 18 and 19th October, ie in less than two weeks. The situation in Spain, while continuing to deteriorate. The government introduced a package of austerity measures for next year in the amount of 40 billion euros. Moody's rating risk reduction, which would mean for the country shift from investment to speculative zone. Order of the day as strikes and every fourth Spaniard is unemployed. The European Central Bank on Thursday with President M. Draghi again declared its willingness to help the country, iebuy local government bonds, but the condition is precisely the official request to Brussels for financial aid.

Czech National Bank (CNB) at the end of the week published a record of the last meeting of the board. The fact that domestic economic activity is faltering and therefore has an anti-inflationary, central bankers agreed. To reduce interest rates, however, only five members voted in favor and the remaining two board voted to maintain rates. Subsequently attracted the attention of discussion around the use of nonstandard monetary instruments, specifically foreign exchange intervention since classical instrument - reducing interest rates are already almost exhausted. It appears that to FX interventions, it is not yet so hot. Some members of the board apparently just not much to his liking.By the end of the year, the CNB would not intervene decisively.

Results published statistics from the domestic economy did not bring surprises. According to PMI in September, the situation in the Czech industry, a bit worse when production fell rapidly in the last three years. Companies are also facing weak domestic and foreign demand and employment in the sector fell slightly. A similar result is in line with the downward trend of the economy and offered Friday retail sales statistics. The August sales drop can be largely attributed to a decrease in sales of new vehicles.From a numbers did not make premature conclusions, but given that the sharp slump in sales of new cars have arrived to Germany, it is possible that the decline in sales in the segment of motor vehicles will continue in this country. Hard data from the domestic economy for August will be released next week. It is already clear, however, that the recession in the 3rd quarter not only continued, but that further deepened.

As usual, the crown on home statistics did not react. Due to a slight improvement in market sentiment, she managed to erase most of the losses from the previous week. Specifically, the currency pair is trading with the euro in the second half of the week back below 25 CZK / EUR strengthened against the dollar by about 40 cents. On Friday, about 15 hours, the exchange rate of the koruna against the euro dimensioned at 24.89 CZK / EUR and USD to 19.10 CZK / USD. With the strengthening of the crown can be expected in the coming weeks.

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Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA CZ
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