Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  October 08, 2012 16:32:00

At the beginning of the week risky assets lost


Czech koruna today anointed gains from the previous week and again approached the level of 25.00 CZK / EUR (highest trade according to Reuters, was held for 24,965 CZK / EUR). Losing and other risky assets, such as the European shares lost around 16th hours of 1.1%. In addition to the crown slightly weakened from regional currencies and the Hungarian forint. Trading as well as due to the holidays in the U.S. and Japan was peaceful.
Today was a busy domestic economic calendar. We waited to see the August data from industry, building blocks and Foreign Trade, was also released the September unemployment rate.Industrial production decreased markedly by 3.1% y / y, which was well below consensus, but even under the most pessimistic estimate of the market. Compared to the previous month, production fell by 2.9% higher (sa, WDA). At first glance, it is an alarming values. However, as stated Statistical Office, had great influence plant-wide holiday in industrial enterprises, which operated in reverse, than last year. To eliminate this factor is therefore necessary to consider industrial production for the two holiday months cumulatively. Even so, we see a slowdown in activity in industry by 1.8% m / m (cumulatively), from the beginning of the year, the industry declined (also cumulative) of 2.6%. After the July pleasant surprise us August trade balance failed. The surplus amounted to CZK 16.9 billion, a negative surprise in the balance of accumulated net of commodities.From the perspective of a mom, seasonally adjusted exports fell by 0.8%, which was fully in line with our estimate. The result confirms the weakness of external demand, German factory orders in August were lower by 4.8% year on year, the downward trend is evident in the new vehicle registrations in the euro area and Germany. This, of course, lastly, Czech export-oriented industry show. Low dynamics of imports reflects the weakness of domestic demand. Unemployment rate at the end of September rose in line with our expectations to 8.4% from 8.3% in August. The number of job seekers has increased by about 6.5 thousand. to nearly 493.2 thousand. This was primarily due to the entry of new graduates into the labor market. During September of them is registered for less than 10 thousand. Developments adjusted unemployment rate shows a gradual deterioration in the labor market.It is gradually increasing since April and September reached 8.7%. However, given the current ongoing recession, fortunately so far the situation does not worsen dramatically.
Tomorrow, the Czech economy will see inflation. Consumer prices in August rose by 3.3% year on year in September should then be higher by 3.4%. If our estimate is correct, the deviation of actual inflation from the CNB forecast should be achieved as in the previous month by -0.1 pp. The mom of view we expect a decrease in prices by 0.1%. Fuel despite the correction in the last days of September, still growing (1.7% m / m), the higher should be regulated prices (0.2%). We expect stagnation in prices for food, but after seasonal adjustment would be recorded growth of 0.3%.Since this was a below average harvest home and jumped up and commodity prices on world markets, should be food prices in the consumer basket to end gradually. For mom decline in consumer prices should thus only be adjusted prices (prices of other items not mentioned above), which will play the role of seasonality (seasonally adjusted, these prices should be higher by 0.07% m / m). Annual adjusted inflation should still hold in September near zero (-0.1% y / y after -0.2% in August), as demand pressures on inflation are negative.
Czech swap curve fell on Monday on its longer end by 1-2 bp. Followed to its development on its euro counterpart.The Ministry of Finance published emission calendar for November, when it plans to sell bonds worth 5-12 billion CZK. In December, the Ministry does not plan any auction. Currently, the Ministry had covered almost 100% of this year's borrowing needs, the emissions in the rest of the year has already provided funding for the next year (if the state's finances in the rest of the year will not deteriorate unexpectedly).


Author: Jiri Skop

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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