Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  October 09, 2012 10:04:42

Comments for inflation - the perceived inflation rate is actually higher than quoted


Producer prices in the recent (September 3.4%) consumers downright wishes. Whole year, inflation could fall below three percent and even in September, nothing positive has happened. As a result, it can only mean deepening problems, not only the economy, but also the family accounts of all people. Salaries now will not grow fast enough to catch up with rising prices, people have a chance to galvanize the economy. In doing so lax consumer demand bothering her the most.

The prices in the Czech Republic are still high due to growth in the food sector (7.3%) and fuel (9.6%). This year is the food affected by weaker grain harvest, which is psychologically enhanced by last year's excellent crop.This gives a strong commodities markets nervous and tend to price increases. In addition, European breadbasket - Russia - is affected cereal crop failures, which immediately sent prices up. The situation has gone so far that Russia had reached the grain intervention, thus selling state grain reserves to the situation calmed down and prices have dropped. I suffer from Czech agriculture this year worse than last year's crop, and therefore prices should rather growth. This will reflect both the prices of bread, as well as on the prices of meat because cereals are an important cost factor in fattening.

The rising food prices also cost inflation in restaurants and pubs. Prices in them rose by 3.8% and one of the big reasons is the increase in input prices. This has the effect of need for people rather cook at home and in restaurants not spend as much because they consider it an unnecessary luxury that can forgive. Restaurateurs and long term declining sales.

Still ongoing and high fuel prices at the petrol pumps. Year-gasoline prices rose more than diesel. The price of oil on world markets currently stagnating, and thus keeps prices at the petrol pumps on stable values. They are still high prices, which are not far from historic levels. Therefore, many Czechs refueled outside, so at least save a few dimes on the tank.

Inflation partly hinges on non-food goods. For clothing and footwear prices are lower by as much as 4%. It is precisely in this segment is long-term deflation, ie prices are always lower yoy and below. Although conducted in the summer sales, prices fell significantly mom especially July and in September it rose by 2.1%. The same situation is also the area of ??home furnishings, each year there is even cheaper price deflation. In September, prices fell by 1.4% yoy

Ing. Michal Kozub
Analyst
Home Credit as


Inflation continues to hover safely to 3%. Annual consumer price inflation accelerated in September to 3.4%. In comparison with the previous month, consumer prices fell by 0.1%. Under the annual increase in prices considerably signed an increase in fuel prices (annual growth of 9.6%). Year-also increased prices for housing, water and energy, and of course for food, without exception for so-called essential goods. In contrast, the price reductions are for non-essential goods, as in the case of footwear, home furnishings and electrical appliances.It was due to the increase in prices of essential goods can explain why the perceived inflation rate higher than actually quoted.

Rising prices continue to plague a large part of Czech households. It remains the case that inflation being felt most in retirement. According to the Czech Statistical Office, which regularly publishes the consumer price index and by social groups of households, inflation rose in September pensioner households up by 4.6% full! Higher prices, however, feel the people with lower than average income. In most cases they had declining real wages and their purchasing power so naturally decreases.In addition, the worsening labor market conditions them almost impossible to ask for a higher salary.

Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA CZ

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