TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  October 11, 2012 13:34:10

Spain received alert. ECB expected to be a guard.


Yesterday's quite boring marketing ultimately set in motion to American seance. Traders following the opening of the markets as though had premonition (or good information) and began to sell. Good reasons for selling were at least two Fed's Beige Book , which has changed in favor of the dictionary yet slabšieho growth and later even also reduce Spain's credit rating by S & P to BBB- , I mean from neinvestičného grade rating. View negative. And here it is worth to present.

The credit rating agency Moodys Španielom reduced the rating to Baa3, that is also a degree of neinvestičného. View negatively it was so in the middle of June 2012.Fitch is Španielom while thoughtful and gives them BBB rating, which is two degrees from neinvestičného even be lowered to BBB-, which is still investment rating. Last was reduced in June. So all three large credit rating agency lowered Spain's rating in the summer deepest clenched Moodys. S & P was the first of the large Troika fluctuated Spain's rating rating already behold the fall, that is the third times this year (the rate of change of credit ratings not comment for the same reason why retail Spain yet in January 2009 AAA rating in April 2010 are still AA.) Is essential that two of the three big agencies Spaniards stood on the edge and the time running. Large institutional funds, they could start a Spanish debt has been sold next to one neinvestičnom rating. When two (two of the three credit ratings junk) was according to the law they can not hold these bonds.

Now what? Spaniel should have a little more time, S & P has already been exhausted for this year, Moody's said that it will be expressed throughout October. Fitch záťažových following the results of the tests, said that affirms rating, but outlook remains negative. He warned, however, that the situation in Spain (and Italy) are deteriorating, and failure to comply with the plans could have an impact on the negatives rating. The point of the story are two recent statements by the IMF. recent report came out, where the IMF warns that the problem with deficits do not have only peripheral landscapes, but also for example France. What he said today? That Spain should discontinue his play markets(Ask / request a help) and it should be hurry up. Because if yields shoot up, it will be difficult to get them back down.

Next steps? We would cite an analysis of the German Economic Institute. They expect that the ECB will buy, regardless of whether they will fulfill the conditions of the landscape. What other because it will stay? Now you can pretend that everything is conditional and will quickly stop shopping and the conditions are not fulfilled Troika. But it can tell who they do not burn and Spanish yields on 2 year olds dlhopisoch at levels 3 3.5%. After reduction rating immediately fired from 3.26% to 3.48%, currently it is below, but remain above yesterday's zatváracími values. If such shocks will continue spaniel for help and they will "fulfill" agreement similar to the hitherto. Will squint and political pressure on the ECB will be huge. Wherefore gumených eurozone stands on stilts and paper-regulation. These will be better ohýbajú as needed.

Remind noble Stability and Growth Pact. Adopted in the times of the famous single-building area and times of economic growth. Eurozone members undertake to miss deficit greater than 3% of GDP and debt of 60%, we've learned that even in school. In force from 1.1.1999. Since 2005 have been adopted automatic mechanisms that should receive too large deficits under control. In 2002 were begun proceedings against Portugal, three years later against Greece (bland Sanctions alleged, nor later against France, and Germany). In 2002, the Italian said European Commission President Prodi(President from 1999 2004) that automatic sanctions are tosh. Literally said I know very well that the Stability Pact is all tosh, like all rigid and immutable decision. If we want to solve these problems, we need unanimity and it does not work. The Stability Pact is far from perfection, we need inteligentnejší tool and more flexibility. Passed ten years and it is quite possible that we will need even a little more flexibilty.

As for Greece, German Institute of Economics does not know how to introduce, without further Greek rescue Haircut. Because what significance should rescuing states and liability for the debts when about 10 years after the first záchrannom program (year 2020) would be the Greek debt is at 150% of GDP? Although the IMF has also acknowledges this number and Germany also wants to present a debt relief (loss ofGerman government debts before the election!) mathematics does. Greece's economy is choking and needs of the most burden removed and then introduce a rigorous regime. Otherwise, we will supervise pomysleného ox zavaleného cost of the car and expect to get up himself and will tow vehicle further. That he needs a little time. Well enough.

The market is getting in a worse mood yesterday and we've created below the bottom of the American promotions. Therefore, it is likely in the next term, rather than decrease growth stocks. Of course, now they odrážame up and see but the correction is over the top and lower down the bottom.

Today will be a lot of important publication, although undergoing a G7 meeting of the IMF annual meeting. Calendar rather fulfills data on commodities , which yesterday stirred gas and oil, today will be pursued mainly natural gas and grains.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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Španielsko dostalo varovanie. ECB by mala byť v strehu.

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