Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Markets  |  October 11, 2012 14:44:29

When we're all in the same boat, we could popojet please?


A key event in the third and fourth quarter will be a total failure of a policy of central banks that seek to improve public opinion surveys, development jobs and interest rates.

And here are the reasons that failures illustrate:

Central banks risk by removing the end (tail risk) Paradoxically, in the short term excluded the main risk event, but at the cost of increasing overall systemic risk. (And at the end of 2013 or early 2014 will be too late to fix it.) Most important thing here is that banks substantially eliminate their ability to manipulate market expectations.

Once you start an endless wave of quantitative easing and proclaim that you will do anything for the survival of the euro, which trumps you have not even left? The answer is no. And that is why the focus of markets quickly returned to microeconomics and concrete data. Here, then Europe fails completely.

On Monday I was in Amsterdam, where he confirmed what I already noticed during the summer in the "rich northern Europe", ie in Denmark, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. This trend is the fact that even here, the crisis finally starting to show.

Negative gravity


Most experts and investors often forget that the zero interest rates have ceased to have effect on the economy two years ago.Their positive impact on the risks associated with asset prices now overshadows the negative gravity environment, which stands for accumulation makrochyb.

Until now protect us while huge budget surpluses countries in northern Europe, but we should be prepared for a rainy day.

Dutch pensioners will receive the first time in the history of lower income from their pension funds. The local banks have come under pressure from regulators, so as to cope with excessive debt in the real estate market.The main Dutch banks are opening their branches in Germany - but why? In order to finance its balance sheet? It is a new trend? I doubt it. Or, to reduce costs? That's the real reason.

It was rich north could be a catalyst for the necessary microeconomic changes that I called (and hoped for them). My friends and family in Denmark now lose their jobs. The company has decided to save and every company you come across, is considering layoffs and not recruiting new people.

Budget deficits


Crisis is no longer just an illusion - it is real. A hit even the wealthy Northerners who have too long lived beyond their means. This is evidenced by high budget deficits in Denmark, Germany or the Netherlands. Until recently, we lived in the fact that the crisis is confined to the southern states of Europe, but now came to the north and affected the whole of Europe.

And here lies a potential catalyst for change - to the markets and central banks realize that the German miracle was in fact a mirage instead of the real ... Then maybe move out of place.It is very difficult to understand the problems your neighbor, no matter how understanding you have for him. But when the crisis exceeds your threshold, everything suddenly changed.

Microlevel


The real crisis is "beautiful", that finally forces us to do something at least at the micro level. I am convinced that it will pay for microeconomics accumulation of so many errors that macro diced central planners. Positive on it is that companies and countries will be ready for change.

That crisis has finally arrived and in key northern European countries, could be the best news for positive prospects across Europe. Bringing us this is a possible solution to the crisis. For me, 2013 will be a year of rebirth. Such as rehabilitation will include V-shaped catalyst for such a change could be any of the following events:

  • Greece leaves the eurozone
  • Angela Merkel receives the votes of the SPD through another mandate, which forces her to act against EU
  • Spain and its economy "explodes" and gets into an open confrontation with the EU
  • The French economy will shrink by two percent of GDP


Or simply get better markets and say that enough was enough. They have had five years of extraordinary measures and perhaps it's time to get back to the roots. By 2017-2020, the maximum introduced a structural deficit of one percent of GDP for all countries. The euro would weaken, introduced the incentive for higher private sector savings that would go on investing in venture capital, through a simpler tax system. And finally - politicians should be held accountable for its actions.

Although they are simple designs, but we also need a pleasant environment in which everyone would like to move forward. And it is much easier when you are in trouble themselves, everyone and realize that without the joint efforts accomplish nothing.

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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