World markets  |  October 11, 2012 17:17:01

Spain and Greece are still a source of uncertainty / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: a week from 8 10th 2,012


Spain and Greece also indicate growth in the equity markets. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy buried speculation that the gathering applications for their help. According to Reuters, this should no longer stand on the previous weekend. But Rajoy said that the total bailout not on the agenda and that still ECB assesses the proposal. This attitude is not so surprising when looking at the Spanish yield curve, which significantly odklesala from July highs. Markets, however, acknowledged the request as soon as possible bailout to be able to action on Spanish bonds recently agreed to join the rescue fund ESM.

Greece is expected, if gets the next tranche of aid. This topic has been much discussed at Monday's meeting of eurozone finance ministers. The head of this group Juncker said in a statement expressed positive surprise as the government proceeds in crisis and praised their progress in the search for savings. This statement only further strengthened the hopes that Greece will get the next part of the assistance (which is also almost confirmed on Tuesday German Chancellor Merkel to visit in Greece) and its vegetative state survival by a few months longer.

If a few weeks ago it seemed that the decision of the ECB to buy bonds of vulnerable countries and U.S. QE3 will bring more peace to other European meetings and more confidence in the equity markets, in reality the situation is not so clear. Volatility is still high, with both coming from politicians on the side of the ball now, new information.But there is one major observable change. The risk of deep sinks markets has declined significantly, which react to portfolio managers rearranging their portfolios towards more risky assets. So it seems that despite the increasingly bad situation in Europe is fairly decent chance that a significant correction in equity markets could have avoided.

Growth could signal upcoming earnings season. In recent weeks, analysts have reduced profit outlooks, which could ultimately contribute to a greater number of positive surprises and therefore the growth of equity markets. Essential, even more than before, but this time they view as earnings expectations in the coming quarters, analysts are very optimistic. This is in an environment of slowing economy may prove to be a source of negative surprises.

Tomáš Menčík, CYRRUS

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 8 10th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
5th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
985.73
976.40
980
ˇ -0.95
955-1 002
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 610,15
13 468,00
13500
ˇ -1.04
13200 - 13630
1
4
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 136,19
3 095,40
3,112
ˇ -1.30
3 000 - 3190
2
3
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 871,00
5 757,60
5,680
ˇ -1.93
5620 - 5920
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 397,87
7 289,00
7,230
ˇ -1.47
7138 - 7480
1
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 863,30
8 797,20
8,716
ˇ -0.75
8600 - 9050
2
3

Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
5th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
985.73
979.00
988
ˇ -0.68
945-1 012
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 610,15
13 608,80
13744
ˇ -0.01
13 200 - 14 000
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 136,19
3 180,00
3,220
^1.40
2950 - 3350
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 871,00
5 858,60
5,963
ˇ -0.21
5530 - 6100
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 397,87
7 445,80
7,449
^ 0.65
7030 - 7750
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 863,30
8 967,20
8,950
^ 1.17
8670 - 9250
3
2

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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