Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  October 12, 2012 14:32:51

Result pessimism U.S. managers like state in a bear trend is in place?


Result pessimism executives of American companies is primarily at the level of anticipation in the bearish trend.
According to Bloomberg, in the last 4 weeks on one company announcing the growth outlook for the development of net profit falls 4.3 company with a negative outlook. Such a ratio was last seen in February 2009 at the height of the financial crisis in October 2001, when the markets reacted to the terrorist attacks on American cities.

Results warnings come despite a reduction in profit outlook for 3Q of 11%.

Bears are now saying that the estimated decline in profits of 1.7%, which will be the first quarterly decline over the past 3 years, will limit the potential equity growth.
Contrary, Bulls says that markets can continue to grow, because companies will be so pessimistic mood easily surpassing estimates.

Stock index S & P 500 from its 12-year nadir in March 2009 has strengthened by about 112% due to the unprecedented Fed intervention and subsequent better-than-expected results of American companies. This year, the main stock index has already made better by 14% and is off to the biggest annual increase since 2009. Indicator PE this year has risen to the level of 14.5 compared to 13.7 at the end of 2011. Over the past 50 years, the titles from the base of the index ranged on average awards PE 16.4.

Among warn companies as Intel, Caterpillar, FedEx.

In June this year, the ratio of positive and negative expectations reached a ratio of 1:3,6. The S & P 500 this month grew by 4% and increased during all three months of the quarter.
According to some comments are top executives in every presidential election in a negative mood, fearing setback government spending that comes at the beginning of next year.

From the base of the S & P 500 have reported the results of 33 companies. 67% of them exceeded market expectations by an average of 4.1%, which roughly corresponds to the same ratio as in 2Q.
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Výsledkový pesimismus US manažerů se podobá stavu v medvědímu trendu, je na místě ?

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