Grant Capital (Grant Capital)
Markets  |  October 12, 2012 22:13:15

U.S. Markets - recap the past, 41 week, and the outlook for the week 15 10th

This week's events:

Just last week was marked by the start of earnings season, but also what is happening in the markets of the EU had a significant impact again. Week launched markets decline, which was largely due to a reduction outlook of China's economy, published by the World Bank. This is joined by fears about the fate of more aid to Greece.

On Tuesday, the reduction in global growth outlook came the International Monetary Fund, which led to a further decline in growth markets and vice versa dollar, which benefited from the situation in Europe. The escalation of tensions between Turkey and Syria, which attacked the Turkish military positions, resulted in 3% rise in the price of oil.

On Tuesday, after the market opened earnings season Alcoa (AA). Sales and profit of the company came slightly above analysts' expectations, but lowered growth outlook for aluminum demand from 7 to 6% of the company shares sent below. Conversely company Yum! Brands (YUM) has come up with a significantly better loss and strengthen its shares by approximately 10%.

Wednesday was carried again in the negative spirit in anticipation of the conclusions Beige Book published in the evening our time. Yielded significant information even if a slight improvement compared to the previous presentation here was.10 out of 12 districts reported improvements in both the real estate market and mortgages, as well as in the production area. Markets, however, the turnover trend intradenního enough and indexes ended again at a loss.

Thursday brought a significantly better result in requests in unemployment but fall in previous days and were able to erase the lingering mood initial growth indices ai ended Thursday's trading close to zero.

Friday brought the index of producer prices, which rose slightly, but adjusted for the effect of transport and food were contrary to their decline. Pressure on inflation remains unimpressed. Consumer sentiment index contrast pleasantly exceeded expectations. On Friday, earnings season started banks JP Morgan, the results turned out better than expected, and Wells Fargo, which slightly surpassed earnings estimates, while revenues fell short of estimates for weakly. The market seems to expect positive surprises from the results and the financial sector was finally on Friday nejztrátovějším. Preliminary slightly green trading Friday passed back to moderate losses.
Overall, the S & P 500 over the last week wrote off more than 2%.

From a technical perspective, the S & P 500 is in the area of resistance in the form of price highs of the previous line in March and April, additional support can provide trend channel of the second half of this year and 50-day moving average. If the violation of such support, it is technically the way open to further decline. Another supportní threshold region is then 1,400 points, consisting August lateral development of the index and 38% Fibbonaciho levels.

Gold in the past week, prices weakened from around 1780 USD to 1757 USD per ounce, while oil slightly increased from less than 90 USD to 92 USD at the end of the week. Pair EUR / USD ended the week with only a slight loss values ??near 1.2950.

By sectors, lost all sectors. Top drop withstood the basic materials sector, but also the one surrendered -0.7%, while the technology that failed the most, write down -3.1%.

Events next week:

The events that are likely to affect the development of the next week, the weekend will begin negotiations of the International Monetary Fund. During the week begins to gather momentum continued earnings season.On Monday it will publish quarterly results such as Citigroup, on Tuesday, then another large bank, which is Goldman Sachs, but also Intel, and Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola. Wednesday will bring the results of Pepsi, Bank of America, eBay and others. On Thursday it will be such as Morgan Stanley, Google or AMD. On Friday, it is worth mentioning McDonalds.

As far as the macro data will come out on Monday, data on retail sales and business inventories, on Tuesday, it will be the consumer price index, industrial production, capacity utilization, index, real estate and more. On Wednesday, data come from the real estate market - the number of mortgages, building permits and housing starts numbers. Thursday will bring the number of applications in unemployment, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed index. Week closed Friday existing home sales.
A complete overview of the expected macro data, visit

Model portfolio:

In the 41st week model portfolio Grant Capital sold STLD, INTC, NBR and IMAX. Bought JNPR, CCJ, JCI and ATI. TNA also traded.
Details about the model portfolio, visit:

David Janousek

Společnost GRANT CAPITAL se specializuje na zprostředkování obchodů s akciemi na burzách v ČR a v USA. Pro více informací navštivte
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US trhy – rekapitulace uplynulého, 41. týdne, a výhled na týden od 15. 10.

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