Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  October 15, 2012 09:52:07

Morning comment 15.10

Key Events

·         International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concerns about global economic growth, As stated at the summit in Tokyo, Japan. The risk is particularly developments in the Eurozone. On Thursday Ch IMF chief Lagarde called on the countries that have received financial assistance given more time on the application of reforms. On the other hand, strong voices that call for the departure of Greece from the eurozone. This, however, vigorously rejected by German Finance Minister Schäuble W., who announced that Germany will help increase the country's competitiveness. Unclear about Spain. The local government has a request for financial assistance permanently and now refuses to speculate about November. While the country would finance asked if they know when specific conditions and the possible range of assistance. On the other hand, Spain is under pressure, when the country was in last week's downgrades and there is talk that the ESM rescue fund is not enough money, or if he wanted to borrow Spain, they would first have tofinancial markets had to borrow Fund (ESM).

·         USA: index of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan in October rose further, reaching 83.1 points, the highest level in the last five years. Americans' attitude to the development of the local economy is so significantly more optimistic than in the previous months, which helped by the improvement in the labor market.A better mood among consumers could be reflected on the outcome of the presidential election, specifically more votes for the incumbent president B. Obama. Producer prices rose in September compared with the previous month by 1.1% and annual growth rose to 2.1%. Higher growth can be attributed mainly to higher energy prices.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Development of currencies of Central European countries during Friday diverged. While the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty lost, the Hungarian forint is informed that the country agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial loan, proved stronger.

·         Crown on Friday lost. Against the euro weakened from the morning and in the afternoon, the course already dimensioned and above the 25 CZK / EUR. The U.S. dollar, while crown morning could strengthen slightly, but after only a week away and closed just below 19.30 CZK / USD.

·         Losses attributed to the Polish zloty. Exchange rate of the zloty during the Friday afternoon dimensioned near the level of 4.10 PLN / EUR. Hungarian forint at the end of the day got close to the level of 280 HUF / EUR.

·         Euro during the morning hours the dollar strengthened, but the level of 1.30 USD / EUR remained unaffected. During the afternoon and in the night from Sunday to Monday the euro weakened and returned to the level of 1.29 USD / EUR.

Today's expected dates and events               

·         Czech Republic: Producer Price Index (September).

·          U.S.: Retail sales (September).

Miroslav Novak

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