Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Markets  |  October 15, 2012 11:16:01

Saxo Bank: Approaching the economic base - the outlook for 4Q12


Investment bank Saxo Bank published its regular economic outlook for the next quarter. The most important observations of the 33-page document, we have chosen: Social tensions increasing, the European Central Bank borrowers and manages U.S. fiscal cliff can cause a drop in stock markets.

Bank chief economist and patron of the study Steen Jakobsen says:

"The year 2012 was a good year so far for investors (annual increase of 13%) and for hope, but extremely bad year for reform and employment. The gap between the different sectors of the economy and individuals benefiting from the current policy of betting on prolonging the current situation on the one hand and the real economy on the other hand is the largest, with which I have for my career so far encountered.The main issues for the rest of 2012 should therefore be the following: How long we can still do well to keep a lid on social discontent, and at what price? "

Increased social tension exists not only in Spain, Portugal and Ireland, but surprisingly also in Germany, where the richest 10% of the population holds in his hands 53% of the total wealth compared to 45% in 1998. The money printing crisis and so far almost exclusively benefited only the rich and the banks, and soon after that you might have to pay for the middle class, because the price of labor is now in relation to GDP moves to the lowest level since the 40th 20th century (reaching its peak this ratio in the 70period, when it had reached 53%).

 

ECB steered borrowers

In the third quarter, the central bank decided in "monetary casino" bet everything on red. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke forced the Board of their institutions to take extreme measures and the ECB and the Fed are now dominated by supporters of extremely holubičího approach. The most dramatic is the dominating ECB members Club Med '- this is a topic that could ultimately damage the solvency of Europe, because the ECB borrowers is substantially controlled a bank other than the bank, which is controlled by balanced group of countries with budget surpluses and deficits.

Macroeconomic desperate measures failed and must be replaced by an emphasis on microeconomics. Companies included in the S & P 500 (excluding the financial sector) are good examples of successful micro (firms and individuals) - in 2012 so far are 20% return on equity! This is not a bad result, considering the overall state of the U.S. economy that grows slowly and is facing headwinds austerity blowing away from the approaching fiscal cliff. Evidence of failure markoekonomické policy is moving record unemployment in the EU, at 11.2% and the negative growth of the European economy, which, according to a consensus in 2012 to weaken by 0.5%.

We are nearing the bottom

This constellation could be regarded as extremely negative, but to be honest, the current situation is so bleak and negative, that practically all that remains only space for improvement. With the exception of the 2013 U.S. overcomes year comparison easily results in 2012 and we continue to believe that the European and U.S. economies are now reflected from the bottom. Year 2013 could be painful for the stock market year, but will it also revives the V-shaped, which will stand for the above improvement in microeconomics.

In the period between the 4th čtvrletím year 2012 and 1 čtvrletím 2013 we go to the absolute bottom of the economic activity, which contribute maximum effort on the austerity measures enforced worldwide, extremely defensive investors, consumers and the banking environment in which the regulatory capital adequacy requirements are more important than customers and their credit needs. In other words, we will face a maximum headwind.

U.S. Budget

If the problem is not America's fiscal cliff deal will not pay for Americans fall in GDP of 3.5%. As a rule, the decline in GDP by 1% leads to a reduction in average income of firms traded on the stock exchange by 5-7 per share. Every one percent, which the U.S. economy will pay for the introduction of austerity measures, reflected by a decrease in the S & P by 75 to 105 points (5-7 × 15 P / E). But they also expect that there is a political agreement that prevents the fulfillment of nejpesimističtějšího scenarios. Part of such an agreement could be an extension of tax breaks and perhaps an overall reduction cuts, but even if everything goes according to the best-case scenario, we can expect a reduction of U.S. GDP0.5-1.0%.

In 4th quarter we will monitor the negotiations for the U.S. fiscal cliff with greater attention than the American elections, in which President Obama waits defeat. The real losers in this game of monetary experiments are, however, savers, workers and young people. In the case of the USA and Europe, that is, during this period we will continue to deal with the fundamental solvency issues. It is true that debt financing of governments and banks is cheaper. Hopefully but only that other sectors economy will continue to be willing to accept a record low rate of wages, a record high state intervention, record strict austerity measures, high unemployment, lack of reform, the unavailability of loans and Japanizations economy.

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz

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Saxo Bank: Blíží se ekonomické dno - výhled pro 4Q12

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