Investor's window  |  October 16, 2012 09:24:27

Vs U.S. elections. Congress of the Chinese Communist


Almost at the same time, in the second week of November, will be two events that should not escape the attention of any active investor. Sixth place in the November U.S. presidential election, two days later the eighteenth congress of the Chinese Communist Party. What events can have an impact on both markets and where to look for investment opportunities?

Presidential elections in the U.S. alone will not be any significant catalyst for the stock markets. I do not say that it does not matter who the new president of the United States, but whether it wins Democrat Obama or Republican Romney, shares no earthquake waiting.For investors, the key is whether or not to worry about the fiscal cliff, which could potentially plunge the U.S. economy into recession. And since it is extremely unlikely that one or the other party received a blocking majority, the fate of a fiscal cliff will just depend on the (dis) agreement between the two key parties.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election probably will not mean a change in the trend in the markets does not mean that you can not identify the "winners and losers" in both variants result. Perhaps it is not surprising that Obama's victory might well respond shares in sectors that can be called social, soft or organic.Companies engaged in the fields of green energy, public infrastructure, hospital networks - these are potential winners if Obama's re-election. Heavy and traditional industries, such as oil companies, coal miners (Romney in a televised debate directly supported this sector), arms factories, railroads, major banks - this should be the winners in the event that emerges as the winner Romney.

Personally, I do, who believe in the victory of the Republican candidate, recommended to consider investing primarily in one of the coal miners in the United States. Their shares were recently under extreme pressure of adverse market conditions, options, and potential winner Romney, it would be for firms in this sector were perhaps living water.So far, however, it seems more likely that Obama's victory is a scenario (such as the well-known portal intrade.com chance Obama is now 67%).

In my opinion, even more important event in November, before the U.S. presidential election, may be the Chinese Communist congress, specifically Congress, which is held once every five years and is (at least officially) the highest authority of the Chinese Communist Party. Not that he expected that the Chinese ruling class has changed in some fundamental way existing rudder communist-capitalist politics, but party leaders expect a relatively large generational change (the largest in the last 10 years) at a time when the growth of the Chinese economy slows down and the financial world waiting to come whether aggressive supportive measures from the Chinesegovernment / central bank.

A positive outcome of the Congress could have (even if not immediately) the power to influence the further development of global markets. There is no doubt that the global economy may recover only if we manage to prevent further weakening of the Chinese economy. In China, although you never know, but I'd bet that the new (facelifted) Chinese communist leadership will not only continue the current trend in economic policy, but also will see new steps toward market liberalization, promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises development equity and bond markets, and advanced technology. The main event from the economic direction of the country comes to a year, which will be held on theThird Plenum (traditionally dedicated to economic reforms), November Congress, however, should reassure investors that China will continue the journey on which it is already thirty years. I expect this may change in the coming months have a positive effect on the valuation of Chinese stocks.

Marek Hatlapatka (1978)

He graduated from the Economics Faculty of the Technical University of Ostrava, completed a 3-month internship in London and Intensive fundamental analysis under the leadership of former chief analyst of Erste BankGalea Kirking. In a society CYRRUS, as is employed since 2006, when he took the place of the analyst equity markets with a focus on foreign markets, pharmaceutical and banking sectors. Subsequently he specialized in banking, electricity and coal mining in these sectors is now one of the most sought after professionals in the Czech Republic. In 2008 he became head of the analytical department of the company CYRRUS, as in this position works even today. Long been one of the most cited Czech economists, in 2010 became the fourth most cited economist in the Czech media.

CYRRUS Company, Inc., is a licensed securities dealer. The company was founded in 1995 and is currently the largest non Prague brokerage companies. It is a member of the Stock Exchange Prague Stock Exchange in Warsaw. CYRRUS Company, Inc., provides comprehensive services in the capital markets, private and corporate clients, focusing on the Exchange trading system SPADPrague Stock Exchange and trading on foreign markets in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Germany and the USA. The company is one of the most important Czech businessmen with investment certificates.

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