Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  October 17, 2012 09:51:32

Morning comment 17.10 - Positive macro speculation around Spain

Key Events

·The mood in the financial markets yesterday supported the optimistic data from Europe and overseas. In Germany, published ZEW index of economic sentiment.   The aggregate value in October from the previous month increased, which can be attributed primarily results September meeting of the European Central Bank. Interesting in this respect will follow other leading indicators of the Federal Republic. Still attracts attention Spain. Again speculated that the country will soon ask for financial assistance.

·         U.S.: Industrial production in September rose more strongly than expected, both in comparison with the previous month, and year on year. Better situation in the industry confirmed the previously published leading indicators, such as production activity index in the vicinity of New York.

·         CR: Prime Minister Necas P. rebuilt the modified proposal to amend the Value Added Tax (VAT). Originally planned increase and lower the standard VAT rate by 1 percentage point to 15% and 21% respectively would be newly covered only the lower rate.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·         Central European currencies during yesterday's successful. Profits attributed to both the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint. Polish zloty from the daily perspective stagnated. Central European currencies generally benefited from improved market sentiment that prevailed in the markets after the publication of better than expected data from Europe and overseas.

·         The currency pair euro managed to crown. During the early morning hours is still trading around the level of 24.90 CZK / EUR. During the afternoon koruna strengthened and at the end of the course be dimensioned already close above 24.80 CZK / EUR. Member of the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank L. licked in yesterday's interview confirmed that interest rates may fall even further. The crown, however, the words of central bankers did not respond.Considerable gains have attributed the Czech currency against the U.S. dollar. At the end of the day, trading within sight of blood 19 CZK / USD.

·         The weakest region was the last Polish zloty against the euro, which most moved close to the level of 4.09 PLN / EUR. The Hungarian forint closed the day below 278 HUF / EUR.

·         The main currency pair managed to euro, which helped to better data from Germany and persistent speculation that Spain will soon ask for financial assistance. Already during the morning euro surpassed its peak on Friday and consequently the level of 1.30 USD / EUR. Even during the afternoon and night from Tuesday to Wednesday the euro managed to further strengthen.

Today's expected dates and events               

·         Germany: The government will publish a new macroeconomic forecast.

·          USA: Building permits (September), commenced construction of houses (September).

Miroslav Novak

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