Research (Česká spořitelna)
Markets  |  October 19, 2012 08:47:15

EU Summit Summary: Union Bank over the next year, disagreements around the start of the ESM

At a current EU Summit was a significant shift in the bank theme Union. This should be introduced gradually over the next year. The French wanted to start it yet as soon as the Germans pushed contrary to a postponement. Technical details should be tuned to the end of this year. Also compromise was reached on the scene. The ECB will eventually supervise all about 6 thousand. banks in the EMU. Begins those rescued, followed by transnational. As a concession to the Germans, who are out of sight of the ECB wanted to remove the smaller banks (they were mainly about their local Landesbank), an agreement can be seen that most of the daily activities "will be delegated to the local authority.

Consensus does not yet exist on when exactly the surveillance ECB formally begins, and since when did the ESM will be able to recapitalize banks directly, without increasing state debt (as will be the case of Spain).The French see it already in 1Q2013, according to the Germans but it's too early.

Assert not (yet) failed a recent proposal of the German Finance Minister Schaeuble on the establishment of a "budget" Commissioner that governments could talk to their budgets. Shortly before the summit supported him in this economic commissioner Olli Rehn. A. Merkel again began to promote the emergence of a kind of fiscal reserves capacity "), the fund, which would be fulfilled taxes on financial transactions and invested it in special projects. This would de facto autonomous budget EMU., this proposal has not been directly rejected, but a few countries it has reservations.

In the case of countries outside EMU, for those not described above proposals and agreements binding. So at least till they decide to join the monetary union. It is expected, however, that Poland would be the Union bank might add.Great Britain is again concerned that if bank union arises, the ECB will be compared with the regulators in countries outside EMU little effect, which would result in a disadvantage as (controllers) are mainly local bank.

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