Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  October 22, 2012 07:47:00

Spanish regional elections are past, Spain is closer to the official request for financial assistance


Summit EU common currency helped too. While the first half of last week's euro strengthened on Monday morning quotes around 1.2900 USD / EUR to a monthly maximum of 1.3140 USD / EUR in the last two working days of last week, the euro lost. Friday's session ended with the close above 1.3020 USD / EUR.

Thursday and Friday's EU summit especially in terms of solution to the debt crisis in Greece and Spain brought no shift. This occurred only in the single banking supervision for the euro area, the ECB will oversee all the approximately 6,000 banks in the euro area. Euro did not help lingering uncertainty about the future development of the situation in Spain when Spanish Prime Minister M. Rajoy said that his country does not feel under pressure to ask for help.

Spain is closer to an official request for assistance. For the premiere Rajoye weekend regional elections ended favorably, when he established position in key Galicia, socialists have clearly lost. According to economists Societe Generale is likely that Spain will ask for help Eurogroup already at its meeting on 12 November and not wait for the regional elections in Catalonia, held on the 25th November. From the perspective of financial markets, the sooner Spain asks for help, the sooner you will be removed uncertainty associated with it, which should lead to calm the markets and reduce risk aversion.

U.S. indicators should continue to surpass those of Europe. Itself today will be fundamental point of view uninteresting, more work days this week, but will bring a number of important indicators.The improving economic sentiment in the United States should reaffirm Thursday statistics new orders of durable goods in September or decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits last week. Key dates in the form of the first estimate of U.S. GDP for Q312 come Friday. Expectations are quite optimistic. After annualized 1.3% for Q2 to Q3 is expected to rise to an average of 1.8% of SG colleagues are even with the estimate of 1.9%, slightly more optimistic. On Wednesday, the U.S. central bankers meet, but this time the FOMC would surprise no big deal, after all approaching the date of the presidential election (November 6). The data so optimistic nevyznějí. Published but will be especially "soft" indicators PMI index type activities or the German Ifo index.While the evaluation of current conditions should be low expectations would after all be reflected in a better mood in the financial markets during the last month. Euro ended with last week above the $ 1.3000 / € and economic calendar suggests that the course could hold above this level in this week, or even try to test the stronger euro level.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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