Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  October 22, 2012 10:39:13

Japan - exports in September fell by 10% year on year and beat expectations, the first trade deficit since r.1979

Japanese exports in September dropped by 10.3%, which exceeded market expectations is set to decline by 9.9%. The September decline was the largest since May of this year.
The overall trade balance ended in a deficit since 1979 in the amount of 558.6 mld.JPY = about 7 mld.USD, which exceeded market expectations set at 547.9 mld.JPY.
The volume of imports in September rose by 4.1%, beating estimates in this regard is set to 2.9%. The reason for this increased interest is to import goods stock up before increasing taxes on oil imports, which came into effect on October 1.

Exports to China fell in September by 14.1% yoy mainly due to the tension prevailing due to a dispute over the islands in the South China Sea.
De EU exports fell by 21.1%, exports to the U.S. increased by 0.9%.
Exports of cars in the global decline in September by 14.6%. Automobile exports to China dropped by 44.5%.

JPMorgan Chase analysts estimate that political tensions with China causes loss in 4Q 0.8% of total GDP, leading to a further decline in total GDP and the minus third quarter in a row.
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