Research (Proinvestory.cz)
Markets  |  October 22, 2012 11:50:44

What if the south of Europe left the euro?


Greece leaving the euro is getting more and more on the tapis. What was last year still considered impossible for policy, about the discussion today as entirely realistic alternative. these developments have recently looked German Think Tank Prognos.

Greece leaving the euro would lead us to a recent study by the German Think Tank Prognos settle. Could not, however, set off a chain reaction. According to the same study, the riskiest countries leave the eurozone - ie Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy - reduce global GDP over the next 8 years to 17 billion euros, equivalent to 22 trillion dollars, which is approximately 3 trillion a year.

Do your sums Think Tank factored not only direct losses, but also the resulting impacts. In a situation where the global GDP is estimated at 72 trillion dollars, a drop of 30%. It looks at first glance like an extreme amount, but let's look at it from another angle.

If this entire amount once wrote, it is a return to 2006. And when I remember how I had 6 years ago, it does not seem that a return to that time would be a big disaster ... or growth (calculated estimates of the International Monetary Fund), stopped for the next 5 years. It would also survived.

38px georgia, times, serif; color: rgb (0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2, Widows: 2;-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "> I think these countries sooner or later today, the euro will cease to apply ., if not do it alone, "kicks" is Germany.

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