Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Czech markets  |  October 23, 2012 14:26:18

Unipetrol: Forecast financial results for 3Q 2012

Management company Unipetrol in the third quarter significantly deviate from the trend of previous results. Indications, management in the publication of preliminary indicators achieved positive EBIT of several hundred million. According to our forecasts operating profit of CZK 572 miles (market consensus 763 miles). This is after huge losses from 4Q 2011 and 2Q 2012 good news, positive outlook but it does not indicate. At the net income level, we expect a positive result of 381 million CZK in comparison with market expectations CZK 570 miles.

EBIT was positively affected, inter alia, the dissolution provisions of CZK 200 million fine in connection with the OPC. Volatile item revaluation of inventories (LIFO effect) in the 3rd quarter, according to our calculations became negative to 195 million CZK.

The reason for the good results are mainly to higher sales volumes of refined products (+3.1% QoQ) and also petrochemical products (+13.6% QoQ). The growth in sales volumes is mainly due to lower prices compared with the previous quarter, prompting customers holding and reduce inventory in 2Q restore order, not only for consumption but also for adding storage. Also positively impressed by the peak motoring season.

Due to the interruption or termination of production of some European refineries Unipetrol achieved significantly higher margins than in the previous quarter. Model refining margin increased by 101% to $ 5.3 per barrel, which was caused mainly by record margins on gasoline and higher spreads on oil and naphtha. The refining segment negative (compared with 2Q) impressed spread lower oil price Brent - Ural, Ural when oil was reinforced tension in the Middle East, especially in Iran. This negative impact was partially offset by lower difference between Brent and other sweet grades of oil.

The petrochemical segment was positively impacted by higher sales, but this effect is dampened lower margin of olefins (-24% QoQ). Conversely polyolefin margin increased by 16%. The higher volumes were due to low prices of petrochemical products (at the beginning of 3Q mom saw a decrease of about 15%), which motivate customers to replenish stocks that were in 2Q discharged at high prices.

Retail still face the same challenges: weak domestic demand due to cheaper fuel in neighboring countries and tax evasion. However, despite these complications Unipetrol sold QoQ higher volumes of fuel because of the height of motoring season. Positively on the retail segment also influenced higher unit margins.

The whole prediction results downloadpdf

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Unipetrol: Predikce výsledků hospodaření za 3Q 2012

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