Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  October 25, 2012 17:16:00

Crown repudiate its Wednesday losses


During today's trading crown erased almost all of yesterday's weakness, when shifted by about two tenths percent, slightly below the 24.95 CZK / EUR. Exchange rate volatility is low in recent days, but this may change next week in anticipation of the monetary-policy meeting CNB. Investors would be able to further speculate on possible interventions against CNB strong crown. However, we do not believe that the direct foreign exchange interventions should have been after this session. Similar gains scored as the crown and zloty, forint strengthened even by about half a percent. A high official of the Hungarian Ministry of Finance had said that Hungary complies with the fiscal targets set in order to obtain a loan from the IMF.

Today's calendar macroeconomic data was essentially empty, and they were published only Hungarian retail sales for August. They fell roughly in line with expectations of 2.4% y / y.

Tomorrow is no data from the Central European economies at all.

Czech swap curve is now slightly increased its slope when short end increased by 1 point and the long end of 2 bb. Czech National Bank announced that the monetary policy meeting next Thursday attended all seven central bankers. Consensus according to today's Bloomberg survey shows stable rates. Our outlook assumes a further reduction in repo rate, this time by 15 bp to 0.10%.Further easing of monetary conditions is in line with the CNB forecast and some central bankers have expressed the possibility of lowering rates to zero. According to us, however, zero rates to meet opposition in the rest of the board. Therefore, we reduce them "only" 0.10% seems likely. For more information tomorrow will bring our CNB Focus.

Author: Marek Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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