Beecroft (Saxo): Greece leave the eurozone within 6 months. I give 50%
Greece has only a 50 percent chance of being part of the eurozone and in six months. For Germany, Greek exit may be manageable and politically desirable. But to add to Greece can also Spain and Italy, which could call into question the existence of the entire eurozone.
Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said Greece could within six months of leaving the eurozone. Take the same view and analysts from Saxo Bank.
"But I'm betting that the Greek departure will be taken as the final value for the constant help of Germany to other peripheral economies. Angela Merkel is trying ukormidlovat extremely difficult path between the German public opinion and the potential collapse of the eurozone. However, they must be careful because you must still pay attention to the peripheral huge monster, which here represents the eventual departure of Spain and Italy. "Said Nick Beecroft, director of the British branch of Saxo Bank.
The German political circles may be taken as leave Greece economically and politically manageable even desirable. Merkel is liable to voters say: "Look, we will not continue to waste our money. When there is no hope of success, we can afford to be strict. And that is why I believe when I ask for more money for Portugal, Spain and Italy. "
"I fear also that Greece has only a 50 percent chance that in the next six months in the eurozone will survive. But if Germany is deemed reasonable victim, then I think fundamentally underestimates the risk of infection.Once everyone sees that the euro project is refundable matter, then Spain and Italy are next in line. "Says Beecroft. And this could call into question the existence of the entire eurozone.
"If Greece not fit across the board, it will want to use the incredibly intricate balance of carrot and stick method. Sugar can Greeks to see everything in better colors, were motivated and felt no stress. A whip is necessary to remove the moral hazard that can bring endless support, "suggests Beecroft.
As for the outlook for the European currency, analysts are pessimistic. The problems in Europe and the rapidly approaching fiscal cliff in the U.S. will increase nervousness in the markets. "As we near the end of the year, the euro will weaken and investors will be looking for the lesser evil of the world's currencies. This appears to be the U.S. dollar, "anticipates situation Beecroft.
Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.
Více informací na: www.saxobank.cz
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