Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  October 29, 2012 15:31:58

Spain's economic situation continues to deteriorate, the retail slump, pending inflation

According to macroeconomic news is coming clear that the economic situation of Spain continues to deteriorate.
Today the local Bureau of Statistics announced that retail sales in September declined by 11%. Tomorrow will present key data on the evolution of public finances, consumer prices and GDP for 3Q. Since all is expected to further confirm the worsening of the general economic situation, which is likely to have a negative effect on the perception of the other Spanish problems with high debt. Worsening economic situation it is crucial for Spain from the perspective of the possible need to ask for international help.

For the development of consumer prices for October estimated annual growth index by 3.6%, as a major influence on prices will increase taxation. In September, the index grew by 3.5%. The October data, if confirmed further growth in the rate of inflation, in this regard will be the worst since October 2008.

The GDP for 3Q of this year, the market expects an average decrease to 0.4%, as in 2Q. Analysts polled by Bloomberg estimate for next year fall in GDP of 1.4% over the government estimate of a decline of only 0.5%. Unemployment estimates for market growth in 2014 to 27% from the current approximately 25%.

For the development of public finance deficit is expected announcement from the beginning of the year at about 50 mld.EUR = about 4.77% of GDP, which is already in excess of the government's plan for the whole year.
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